Can the Rising U.S. Dollar Hold the 154-Yen Level Following the U.S. CPI Report?

Can the Rising U.S. Dollar Hold the 154-Yen Level Following the U.S. CPI Release?

11.09.2026 New

In the U.S. currency markets yesterday, the dollar rose against the yen. The U.S. August PPI came in at 0.4% month-over-month, in line with market expectations, and combined with the sharp rise in crude oil prices, this heightened concerns about inflation.The probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting has risen to the 71% range, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has also climbed to around 4.97% today.The USD/JPY pair traded within a range of 153.30 to 154.67 yen yesterday and is continuing to fluctuate primarily in the 154-yen range today. We will be watching to see whether it breaks above the 154.67 yen level or falls below 154 yen to undergo a correction.

Among European currencies, the euro faced resistance against the dollar.The ECB raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% and indicated that inflation is expected to remain above target for an extended period. While expectations for further rate hikes have strengthened, rising U.S. interest rates and dollar buying have prevailed, keeping the euro-dollar exchange rate in the low 1.16 range.The immediate focus is on whether the pair can hold around $1.1600, and investors should also watch for any new hints regarding future rate hike policy in ECB President Lagarde’s remarks scheduled for 23:00 today.

Today’s economic indicators include the UK’s July Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production Index, and Trade Balance, scheduled for release at 3:00 p.m. Market forecasts for Industrial Production are -0.2% month-over-month and 0.2% year-over-year.At 21:30, the U.S. August CPI will be released; the market expects the headline index to rise 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while the core index is forecast to rise 0.2% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year.At 23:00, the preliminary September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and remarks by ECB President Lagarde are also on the agenda. We will be watching to see how both the dollar and the euro react to determine whether the U.S. CPI will further fuel expectations of an interest rate hike.