USD/JPY Hovers in the 153-yen Range; Will the Euro Continue to Rise Even After the ECB Rate Hike?
10.09.2026
- ECB Policy Rate and ECB President Lagarde's Press Conference
- U.S. August Producer Price Index (PPI)
In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the dollar showed little direction against the yen. Although the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to around 4.84% amid higher crude oil prices, the momentum for dollar buying remained limited relative to the rise in interest rates.The dollar/yen pair traded within a range of 152.95 to 153.83 yen, closing in the 153-yen range. It continues to trade in the mid-153-yen range today.While expectations of an additional rate hike by the Bank of Japan and the unwinding of short yen positions are supporting the yen, expectations of higher U.S. interest rates remain ahead of today’s U.S. PPI release. We will be watching to see whether the 152.95 yen level acts as support or if the pair tests the 154.00 yen psychological level.
In the European currency market, the euro held steady against the dollar amid expectations of an additional rate hike by the ECB. The euro-dollar pair traded within a range of $1.1620 to $1.1654 the previous day and closed near $1.1636.It continues to trade in the $1.163 range today. Amid concerns over inflationary pressures stemming from crude oil prices exceeding $100, the prevailing view in the market is that the ECB will implement a 25-basis-point rate hike at today’s policy meeting.The focus is likely to be on whether the pair can hold near $1.1620 and whether it will break above the previous day’s high in the $1.165 range. In addition to the policy rate itself, attention should also be paid to what views ECB President Lagarde expresses regarding the scope for further rate hikes in the future.
Today’s economic indicators include the revised German August CPI at 3:00 p.m., the Turkish Central Bank’s policy rate at 8:00 p.m., and the ECB’s policy rate at 9:15 p.m.At 21:30, the U.S. August PPI and initial jobless claims will be released; the PPI is expected to come in at 0.4% month-over-month and 5.3% year-over-year, while the core PPI is forecast at 0.3% month-over-month and 4.6% year-over-year.At 21:45, ECB President Lagarde will hold her regular press conference, and at 23:00, U.S. August existing home sales figures are also due. Since the ECB meeting and U.S. inflation data coincide on the same day, we will be watching to see if this provides a clear direction for both the euro and the U.S. dollar.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
