Speculation Over U.S. and Japanese Rate Hikes Clashes; Will the Dollar-Yen Pair Find a Direction from the 154-Yen Level?

Speculation Over U.S. and Japanese Rate Hikes Clashes; Will the Dollar-Yen Pair Find a Direction from the 154-Yen Level?

14.09.2026 New

On the 11th, the U.S. dollar showed little direction against major currencies. With the U.S. August CPI coming in at 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year—indicating continued inflationary pressure—the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at this week’s FOMC meeting rose to about 87%.Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 5% before falling back to around 4.93%, limiting the dollar’s gains. Today, the Dollar Index is trading around 99.34, and the dollar-yen pair is hovering around 154.03 yen.While the 152.89 yen level is viewed as the immediate support, attention is focused on whether the pair can extend its gains from the upper 154 yen range toward the 155 yen level.

Among European currencies, the euro is facing resistance against the dollar. Although the ECB implemented an additional rate hike last week and the possibility of further monetary tightening is on investors’ minds, expectations of a rate hike in the U.S. are also growing, causing the euro/dollar pair to fall to around $1.1565 today.The immediate focus will likely be on whether the pair finds support around $1.1550 or can recover to $1.1600. ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak at 24:15, and investors should pay close attention to whether her remarks hint at further interest rate hikes.

Today’s economic data included the release of Japan’s final July industrial production figures at 1:30 p.m., which showed a month-over-month decline of 0.2%, a year-over-year increase of 3.9%, and a month-over-month change in the capacity utilization rate of 0.5%.Later today, Canada’s August CPI and July manufacturing shipments are scheduled for release at 21:30. Market expectations for the CPI are 0.0% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year.At 12:15 a.m., ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak. With no major U.S. economic indicators on the calendar, we will be watching to see how the Canadian dollar reacts to the inflation data and how the euro reacts to the ECB president’s remarks.