With U.S. retail sales data on the horizon, will the dollar-yen pair seek direction in the 159-yen range?

With U.S. retail sales data on the horizon, will the dollar-yen pair test the 159-yen level as it searches for direction?

14.08.2026 New

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July came in at 0.0% month-over-month, falling short of the market forecast of 0.2%. The year-over-year rate also slowed to 4.7% from the previous month’s 5.5%, dampening expectations for a rate hike in September.Although the U.S. dollar was sold off immediately after the release, it subsequently recovered. The USD/JPY pair traded in a range of 159.02 to 159.57 yen and closed the previous day near 159.44 yen. The previous day’s trading range was approximately 55 sen.Today, the pair is trading in the low 159-yen range, with resistance likely around 159.50–159.60 yen and support around 159.00 yen.

European currencies were influenced by the UK’s April–June gross domestic product (GDP), which rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, in line with market expectations. June’s monthly GDP rose 0.3% month-on-month, exceeding market expectations of no change, highlighting the resilience of the UK economy.However, this did not provide any significant catalyst to alter the Bank of England’s (BOE) policy outlook, and the pound lacked direction against the U.S. dollar. The GBP/USD pair traded within a range of $1.3474 to $1.3514, closing near $1.3485 at the end of the previous day.Today, the pair has rebounded to around $1.3500, and resistance is likely to be seen around $1.3510–$1.3520, while support is expected around $1.3470–$1.3480.

Today’s economic indicators include the revised French Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July at 15:45 and the revised Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the April–June quarter and the June trade balance at 18:00.Eurozone GDP is expected to come in at 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.0% year-on-year. U.S. July retail sales are scheduled for release at 21:30, with forecasts of 0.1% month-on-month for total retail sales and 0.2% month-on-month for retail sales excluding automobiles.At 11:00 p.m., the preliminary August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for the U.S. will also be released. With expectations for a U.S. interest rate hike having receded following the previous day’s PPI data, attention will focus on whether the retail sales figures confirm the resilience of the U.S. economy and how the USD/JPY pair—currently trading in the 159-yen range—will react.