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With U.S. PPI Data on the Horizon, Will the Dollar-Yen Pair Test the 160-Yen Level?

Market Report

With U.S. PPI Data on the Horizon, Will the Dollar-Yen Pair Test the 160-Yen Level?

Today's Highlights
  1. Preliminary UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Figures for April–June
  2. U.S. July Producer Price Index (PPI)

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July came in at 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, in line with market expectations. Core CPI also rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year, marking a slowdown in growth from the previous month.Expectations for a September rate hike receded, and although the U.S. dollar came under selling pressure immediately after the release, it subsequently recovered. The dollar-yen pair traded within a range of 158.69 to 159.56 yen, closing the previous day near 159.34 yen. The previous day’s trading range was approximately 87 sen.Today, the pair is trading in the low to mid-159-yen range, with resistance likely around 159.50–160.00 yen and support around 159.00 yen.

Among European currencies, the pound temporarily rose against the U.S. dollar amid lingering expectations of further interest rate hikes, ahead of the release of the UK’s preliminary GDP figures for the April–June quarter.While the view that the UK economy has not weakened significantly was taken into account, the pound failed to sustain its upward momentum ahead of the key economic data release. The GBP/USD pair traded within a range of $1.3486 to $1.3544 and closed near $1.3495. The previous day’s trading range was approximately 58 pips.During today’s Asian trading session, the pair is trading around $1.3490, with resistance likely around $1.3540–$1.3550 and support around $1.3480–$1.3490.

Today’s economic indicators include the preliminary UK GDP figures for April–June and the June trade balance, to be released at 3:00 p.m., followed by the Eurozone’s June industrial production figures at 6:00 p.m.At 21:30, the U.S. July Producer Price Index (PPI) and initial jobless claims are scheduled for release. The PPI is expected to rise 0.2% month-over-month and 4.9% year-over-year, while the core PPI is forecast to rise 0.3% month-over-month.Initial jobless claims are expected to rise to 202,000 from the previous reading of 199,000. With expectations for a rate hike having receded following the previous day’s CPI release, attention will focus on whether the PPI will once again shift the outlook for U.S. inflation and how the USD/JPY pair—which is approaching the 160-yen level—will react.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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