Will the USD/JPY Continue to Fluctuate Around the 159 Yen Level Following Weak U.S. Retail Sales Data?
17.08.2026
- Canada's July Consumer Price Index (CPI)
- U.S. August New York Fed Manufacturing Index
In the U.S. currency market on the previous business day, U.S. retail sales for July fell 0.6% month-over-month, falling short of market expectations of a 0.1% increase and the previous month’s 0.2% increase.This marked the first decline in nine months, and concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy dampened expectations for a rate hike in September, leading to selling of the U.S. dollar. The USD/JPY pair traded within a range of 158.60 to 159.57 yen and ended the week around 159.32 yen. The trading range for the previous trading day was approximately 97 sen.Today, the pair is trading around 159 yen, with resistance likely around 159.40–159.60 yen and support around 158.60–159.00 yen.
Among European currencies, the pound rose against the U.S. dollar amid growing recognition of the resilience of the British economy. The pound was supported by the release on the 13th of UK GDP figures for the April–June quarter, which showed a 0.4% increase from the previous quarter, and June’s monthly GDP, which rose 0.3% from the previous month, both exceeding market expectations.The GBP/USD pair traded within a range of $1.3482 to $1.3563, ending the week near $1.3535. The trading range for the previous business day was approximately 81 pips.Today, the pair has risen to around $1.3550, and resistance is likely to be seen around $1.3560, while support is expected in the $1.3530–$1.3540 range.
Today’s economic indicators include the release of China’s July retail sales and industrial production figures at 4:00 p.m. At 9:30 p.m., the U.S. August New York Fed Manufacturing Survey and Canada’s July Consumer Price Index (CPI) are scheduled for release.The New York Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to decline to 11.5 from the previous reading of 15.6, while Canada’s CPI is forecast to rise to 0.4% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, up from the previous readings of -0.4% and 2.8%, respectively.At 23:00, the U.S. August NAHB Housing Market Index will also be released. With expectations of a U.S. interest rate hike receding following last weekend’s weak U.S. retail sales data, attention will focus on how the U.S. dollar and the Canadian dollar react to U.S. economic sentiment and Canadian inflation trends.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
