Will the USD/JPY continue to fluctuate around the 159 yen level following weak U.S. retail sales data?
17.08.2026
- Canada's July Consumer Price Index (CPI)
- U.S. August New York Fed Manufacturing Index
On the previous business day, U.S. currency saw U.S. retail sales for July fall 0.6% month-over-month, falling short of market expectations of a 0.1% increase and the previous month’s 0.2% increase.This marked the first decline in nine months, and concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy caused expectations for a September interest rate hike to fade, leading to selling of the U.S. dollar. The dollar-yen pair traded within a range of 158.60 to 159.57 yen and ended the week near 159.32 yen. The previous trading day’s range was approximately 97 sen.Today, the pair is trading around 159 yen, with resistance expected around 159.40–159.60 yen and support around 158.60–159.00 yen.
Among European currencies, the pound rose against the U.S. dollar amid growing awareness of the resilience of the British economy. The pound was supported by the release on the 13th of U.K. gross domestic product (GDP) data for the April–June quarter, which showed a 0.4% increase from the previous quarter, and June’s monthly GDP, which rose 0.3% from the previous month, both exceeding market expectations.The GBP/USD pair traded within a range of $1.3482 to $1.3563 and ended the week near $1.3535. The trading range for the previous business day was approximately 81 pips.Today, the pair has risen to around $1.3550, and resistance is likely to be seen around $1.3560, while support is expected in the $1.3530–$1.3540 range.
Today’s economic indicators include the release of China’s July retail sales and industrial production figures at 4:00 p.m. At 9:30 p.m., the U.S. August New York Fed Manufacturing Index and Canada’s July Consumer Price Index (CPI) are scheduled for release.The New York Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to decline to 11.5 from the previous reading of 15.6, while Canada’s CPI is forecast to rise to 0.4% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, up from the previous readings of -0.4% and 2.8%, respectively.At 23:00, the U.S. August NAHB Housing Market Index will also be released. With expectations of a U.S. interest rate hike receding following last weekend’s weak U.S. retail sales data, attention will be focused on how the U.S. dollar and the Canadian dollar react to U.S. economic sentiment and Canadian inflation trends.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
