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Will the U.S. CPI Determine the Direction of the Dollar-Yen Exchange Rate in the 159-Yen Range?

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Will the U.S. CPI Determine the Direction of the Dollar-Yen Exchange Rate in the 159-Yen Range?

12.08.2026 New

Today's Highlights
  1. Revised July Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Germany
  2. U.S. July Consumer Price Index (CPI)

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, with the release of the U.S. July Consumer Price Index (CPI) pending, the U.S. dollar traded in a range centered around the 159-yen level against the yen. Inflation concerns, fueled by rising crude oil prices amid tensions in the Middle East, and a rise in long-term U.S. interest rates also provided support for the U.S. dollar.Meanwhile, active trading was limited ahead of the release of key economic indicators. The USD/JPY pair traded within a range of 158.93 to 159.39 yen and closed the previous day near 159.28 yen. The previous day’s trading range was approximately 46 sen.During Asian trading hours today, the pair rose to around 159.46 yen, and resistance levels around 159.50 yen and 160.00 yen, as well as support around 159.00 yen, are likely to be watched.

Ahead of the release of the preliminary UK GDP figures for the April–June quarter on the 13th, the pound lacked direction against the U.S. dollar.Combined with a wait-and-see attitude regarding the UK economic outlook and light summer trading volume, this did not lead to any significant price movements. The GBP/USD pair traded within a range of $1.3491 to $1.3519, closing near $1.3507. The previous day’s trading range was approximately 28 pips.During today’s Asian trading session, the pair has continued to trade in the 1.3500 range, with resistance likely around 1.3520 and support expected between 1.3490 and 1.3500.

Today’s economic data includes the release of Germany’s revised July Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 3:00 p.m., which is expected to match the preliminary figures at 0.8% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year.At 21:30, the U.S. July Consumer Price Index (CPI) is set to be released; the month-over-month rate is expected to rise to 0.1% from the previous reading of -0.4%, while the year-over-year rate is expected to slow to 3.4% from 3.5%.Core CPI is forecast to come in at 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year. At 27:00, the U.S. July monthly budget balance will also be released. The U.S. CPI results could shift expectations for September’s monetary policy, so we will be watching the reaction of the USD/JPY pair, which has risen to the 159-yen level.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. He specializes in technical and fundamental analysis, drawing on his extensive experience.

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Can the USD/JPY Hold the 158-Yen Level Following the U.S. Employment Report?
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