Will the sharply falling USD/JPY pair seek direction following the U.S. ISM report?
01.05.2026
- UK April Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised)
- U.S. April ISM Manufacturing PMI
In the U.S. currency market yesterday, although the March U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator showed stronger growth, the dollar-yen pair plummeted on speculation of currency intervention by Japanese authorities. The dollar-yen pair rose temporarily to around 160.70 before falling to around 155.50, and subsequently traded in the 156-yen range.Resistance near the 160.00 level is likely to be a key concern, while on the downside, the focus will be on whether the 155.50 to 155.00 range acts as support. We will be watching to see if the US dollar finds a bottom following today’s release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
European currencies remained firm, with the pound holding steady against the dollar as the Bank of England (BOE) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.75%. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 8-1 to keep rates steady, with only Chief Economist Hugh Pill advocating for a rate hike to 4.00%.The GBP/USD pair fluctuated within a range of 1.3454 to 1.3611 before settling near 1.3600, and the immediate focus is on whether it can hold above 1.3600. Resistance is likely to be seen around 1.3610, while support is expected between 1.3450 and 1.3400. We will be watching the pound’s reaction to today’s revised UK PMI data.
Today’s key economic indicators include Australia’s January–March Wholesale Price Index (PPI) at 10:30, the UK’s April Nationwide House Price Index at 15:00, the UK’s April Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI, revised) at 17:30, the US’s April Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI, revised) at 22:45,and the US April ISM Manufacturing Index at 23:00. In particular, the UK PMI is likely to be a key driver during European trading hours, while the US PMI and ISM Manufacturing Index will be key drivers during New York trading hours; we should carefully assess the direction of the pound and the US dollar.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
