Focus on the direction of the USD/JPY pair as intervention concerns persist
04.05.2026
- Eurozone April Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised)
- U.S. New Manufacturing Orders for March
In the previous day’s U.S. currency trading, the April ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.7, unchanged from the previous month and below the market forecast of 53.0. Meanwhile, concerns over rising input costs caused the U.S. dollar to trade in a directionless manner. The USD/JPY pair traded within a range of 155.52 to 157.33 before closing near 157.06, with market participants continuing to monitor speculation regarding potential currency intervention by Japanese authorities.Currently, the 157.00 level appears to be a key resistance level for a pullback, while on the downside, the focus will likely be on whether the 155.50 to 155.00 range holds as support. We will be watching today’s U.S. manufacturing new orders data to see if the U.S. dollar continues to recover.
European currencies remained on guard against inflation risks even after the Bank of England (BOE) kept its policy rate unchanged, with the pound briefly reaching a 10-week high against the dollar. However, upward momentum slowed heading into the weekend, and the GBP/USD pair fluctuated within a range of 1.3568 to 1.3658 before closing near 1.3570.The immediate focus is on whether the pound can regain the 1.3600 level; resistance is likely around 1.3660, while support is expected between 1.3560 and 1.3550. Today, revised manufacturing PMI figures for major European countries and the eurozone are scheduled for release, and we will be watching to see how European currencies react to these economic indicators.
Today’s economic indicators include Turkey’s April Consumer Price Index (CPI) and April Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) at 4:00 PM, Switzerland’s April Manufacturing PMI at 4:30 PM, France’s April Manufacturing PMI (revised) at 4:50 PM, Germany’s April Manufacturing PMI (revised) at 4:55 PM,the Eurozone April Manufacturing PMI (revised) at 5:00 PM, U.S. March Manufacturing New Orders at 11:00 PM, and Mexico’s April Manufacturing PMI at 12:00 AM. In particular, the Eurozone PMI during European trading hours and U.S. Manufacturing New Orders during New York trading hours are likely to be key drivers, so we will carefully monitor the reaction of the euro and the U.S. dollar.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
