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Will Market Participants Wait and See How Far the Euro Can Rise Against the U.S. Dollar?

Market Report

Will Market Participants Wait and See How Far the Euro Can Rise Against the U.S. Dollar?

05.03.2026

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. Challenger Layoff Figures
  2. UK Construction PMI

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar fell against the yen after the final figures for the U.S. February PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) released yesterday showed declines in both the non-manufacturing and composite indices compared to the previous month. The USD/JPY pair fell from 157.864 to 156.865, tracking a downward trend along the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, the price broke below the support line formed by the 20-period moving average with a real-body candle, and on the daily chart, it rebounded after touching the +2σ line of the Bollinger Bands.

European currencies rose as the euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar after yesterday’s release of the Eurozone’s January Producer Price Index (PPI) showed it remained unchanged from the previous month at -2.1% year-over-year.The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.1575 to 1.1654. On the hourly chart, the price has moved from below the 20-period moving average (MA) to above it. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI has recovered to 37 after falling to 21, and on the daily chart, the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) is acting as a support level, with the price currently rebounding.

Today’s economic indicators include Japan’s foreign and domestic securities investment at 8:50, Australia’s trade balance at 9:30, Switzerland’s unemployment rate at 17:00, the UK’s construction PMI at 18:30, the EU’s retail sales at 19:00,remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel at 21:30, U.S. Challenger Layoffs and the release of the minutes from the ECB Governing Council meeting at 21:30, U.S. Nonfarm Productivity Index, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, and U.S. Import/Export Price Index at 22:30,at 12:30 a.m., U.S. weekly natural gas inventories; at 2:00 a.m., remarks by ECB President Lagarde; and at 3:15 a.m., remarks by Fed Vice Chair Bowman. I intend to wait and see how much further the euro can rise against the U.S. dollar after its recent rebound.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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Despite the Rise in the Consumer Price Index, Market Participants May Be Wary of the Euro's Downward Potential

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Will the rising U.S. dollar extend its gains on the back of comments from key figures? All eyes are on price movements during U.S. trading hours.
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