Will the market wait and see how much further the euro can rise against the U.S. dollar?
05.03.2026
- U.S. Challenger Job Cuts
- UK Construction PMI
In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar fell against the yen after the final figures for the U.S. February PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) released yesterday showed declines in both the non-manufacturing and composite indices compared to the previous month. The USD/JPY pair fell from 157.864 to 156.865, tracking a downward trend along the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, the price has broken below the support line formed by the 20-period moving average with a real body candle, and on the daily chart, it has pulled back after touching the +2σ line of the Bollinger Bands.
European currencies rose against the U.S. dollar as the Eurozone’s January Producer Price Index (PPI), released yesterday, remained unchanged from the previous month at -2.1% year-on-year.The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.1575 to 1.1654. On the hourly chart, the price has moved from below the 20-period moving average (MA) to above it. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI has recovered to 37 after falling to 21, and on the daily chart, the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) is acting as a support level, with the price currently rebounding.
Today’s economic indicators include Japan’s foreign and domestic securities investment at 8:50, Australia’s trade balance at 9:30, Switzerland’s unemployment rate at 17:00, the UK’s construction PMI at 18:30, Eurozone retail sales and remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel at 19:00, and the U.S. Challenger job cuts and Eurozonepublication of the ECB Governing Council minutes, at 22:30: US Nonfarm Productivity Index, US Initial Jobless Claims, and US Import/Export Price Index; at 24:30: US Weekly Natural Gas Inventories; at 26:00: remarks by ECB President Lagarde; and at 27:15: remarks by Fed Vice Chair Bowman.We will wait and see how much further the euro can rise against the US dollar.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
