Rising Consumer Price Index May Spark Concerns About the Euro's Downward Pressure
04.03.2026
- U.S. ADP Employment Report
- Remarks by SNB Vice Chairman Martin of Switzerland
In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar rose against the euro. The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.1705 to 1.1532. The decline occurred as the pair encountered resistance at the 10-period moving average on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the pair continued to move along the -2σ line of the Bollinger Bands, while on the daily chart, the price broke below the 200-period simple moving average support line with a real body candle, setting a new year-to-date low.
Despite the fact that the Eurozone’s February Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released yesterday, rose by 0.2 percentage points year-over-year to 1.9% from the previous month’s 1.7%, the euro fell against the pound. The EUR/GBP pair dropped from 0.8739 to 0.8690. It reversed lower after encountering resistance at the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, the price has already broken below the 200-period SMA support line, and on the daily chart, the candlesticks are falling below the 20-period MA, which had previously provided support.
Today’s economic indicators include Australia’s Q4 GDP at 9:30, Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index at 16:30, France’s Non-Manufacturing PMI at 17:50, Germany’s Non-Manufacturing PMI at 17:55, the Eurozone’s Non-Manufacturing PMI at 18:00,remarks by SNB Vice Chairman Martin at 6:30 PM, UK Non-Manufacturing PMI at 6:30 PM, Eurozone Producer Price Index and Eurozone Unemployment Rate at 7:00 PM, US MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 9:00 PM, US ADP Employment Report at 10:15 PM, Canada Q4 Labor Productivity Index at 10:30 PM, US Non-Manufacturing PMI at 11:45 PM,12:00 AM: US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, 12:30 AM: Remarks by BOC Governor McClem, and US weekly crude oil inventories are scheduled. We should remain cautious about the euro’s downside potential, given the weak rise in the Consumer Price Index.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
