Will the euro, which fell against the U.S. dollar, recover? Or will the market wait to see which direction it takes after the FOMC meeting?

Will the euro, which fell against the U.S. dollar, recover? Or will the market wait to see which direction it takes after the FOMC meeting?

29.01.2026

The U.S. dollar rose against the yen following the FOMC’s policy rate announcement early this morning, in which the policy rate was held steady at 3.50–3.75%.The USD/JPY pair rose from 152.145 to 154.038. On the hourly chart, the price moved from below the 20-period moving average (MA) to above it. On the 4-hour chart, the price has retreated from below the 10-period MA to just below the 20-period MA, and on the daily chart, the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) is acting as support, with a rebound having just begun.

Among European currencies, the euro fell against the U.S. dollar. The EUR/USD pair dropped from 1.2044 to 1.1895, moving from above the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart to below it.On the 4-hour chart, the price pulled back from the +3σ Bollinger Band to the centerline. The daily chart also shows a sharp pullback from the +3σ Bollinger Band, similar to the 4-hour chart. Note that the euro has been strengthening again during today’s Asian trading session, so we will be watching price movements closely during European trading hours.

Today's economic indicators include New Zealand's trade balance at 6:45,8:50: Japan’s Foreign and Domestic Securities Investment; 9:00: New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence Index; 9:30: Australia’s Consumer Sentiment Index; 18:00: Eurozone Money Supply; 18:30: South Africa’s Producer Price Index; 19:00: EurozoneBusiness Sentiment, at 22:30: U.S. Nonfarm Labor Productivity, U.S. Trade Balance, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, and Canada’s International Commodity Trade; at 24:00: U.S. Business Inventories,U.S. Durable Goods Orders, U.S. New Manufacturing Orders; at 24:30, Weekly Natural Gas Inventories; and at 27:00, a U.S. 7-Year Treasury Auction. I’d like to wait and see how the market moves following the FOMC meeting to determine whether the euro, which has fallen against the U.S. dollar, will recover.