Will the euro, which has fallen against the U.S. dollar, recover? Or will the market wait to see which direction it takes after the FOMC meeting?

Will the euro, which fell against the U.S. dollar, recover? Or will the market wait and see which direction it takes after the FOMC meeting?

29.01.2026

The U.S. dollar rose against the yen following the FOMC’s policy rate announcement early this morning, in which the policy rate was held steady at 3.50–3.75%.USD/JPY rose from 152.145 to 154.038. On the hourly chart, the price moved from below the 20-period moving average (MA) to above it. On the 4-hour chart, the price has retreated from below the 10-period MA to just below the 20-period MA, and on the daily chart, the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) is acting as support, with a rebound having just begun.

Among European currencies, the euro fell against the U.S. dollar.The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.2044 to 1.1895, moving from above the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart to below it. On the 4-hour chart, the price pulled back from the +3σ Bollinger Band to the centerline. Similarly, the daily chart shows a sharp pullback from the +3σ Bollinger Band. However, as the euro has regained strength during today’s Asian session, we will be watching price movements closely during the European session.

Today’s economic indicators include New Zealand’s trade balance at 6:45, Japan’s foreign and domestic securities investment at 8:50, New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence Index at 9:00, Australia’s Consumer Sentiment Index at 9:30, the Eurozone’s money supply at 18:00, South Africa’s Producer Price Index at 18:30, the Eurozone’sBusiness Sentiment, 10:30 PM US Nonfarm Productivity, US Trade Balance, US Initial Jobless Claims, and Canada International Merchandise Trade; at 12:00 AM US Business Inventories, US Durable Goods Orders, and US Manufacturing New Orders; at 12:30 AM Weekly Natural Gas Storage; and at 3:00 AM US 7-Year Treasury Auction.I’d like to wait and see how the market reacts after the FOMC meeting to determine whether the euro, which has fallen against the US dollar, will recover.