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Should We Be Wary of the Upside Potential for the Swiss Franc, Which Continues to Hit New Highs?

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Should We Be Wary of the Upside Potential for the Swiss Franc, Which Continues to Hit New Highs?

28.01.2026

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. FOMC Policy Rate and Statement Announcement
  2. German GFK Consumer Confidence Survey

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the Canadian dollar continued to fall against the yen. The CAD/JPY pair fell from 112.752 to 111.737. It broke below the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart, with both highs and lows moving lower.On the 4-hour chart, the price is facing resistance at the 10-period moving average (MA), while on the daily chart, the candlesticks have fallen to just below the 75-period MA. The pair has weakened to levels not seen since last November. Additionally, on the weekly chart, the price has broken below the 10-period MA—which had been serving as the support line for the uptrend—with a real body.

Among European currencies, the Swiss franc was the strongest during U.S. trading hours. The USD/CHF pair fell from 0.7783 to 0.7604, pushing the hourly RSI down from 50 to 12.On the 4-hour chart, a band walk along the -2σ Bollinger Band was observed, while on the daily chart, the pair rose to levels seen during the Swiss franc shock. The daily RSI plummeted to 24.

Today’s economic indicators include the release of the minutes of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting at 8:50, the Australian Consumer Price Index at 9:30, the German GfK Consumer Confidence Index at 16:00, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 21:00, and the Bank of Canada (BOC) policy rate announcement and statement at 23:45,at 24:30, the U.S. weekly crude oil inventories and a press conference by BOC Governor McClem; at 28:00, the U.S. FOMC policy rate decision and statement; and at 28:30, a press conference by Fed Chair Powell. Investors should remain cautious about the upside potential of the Swiss franc, which continues to hit new highs.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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Will the euro, which fell against the U.S. dollar, recover? Or will the market wait to see which direction it takes after the FOMC meeting?
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