All eyes are on whether the euro’s decline against the yen will continue

All eyes are on whether the euro’s decline against the yen will continue

01.10.2025

In U.S. currency trading yesterday, the U.S. dollar hit its weakest level during U.S. trading hours after the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for September, released yesterday, came in at 40.6—below the market forecast of 43.2.The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.1712 to 1.1761, rebounding from the -2σ level of the hourly Bollinger Bands. On the 4-hour chart, the 200 SMA is acting as a support level, while on the daily chart, the pair is currently attempting to break above the 20 MA.

European currencies fell against the yen after yesterday’s release of Germany’s September employment statistics showed that the number of unemployed rose to 14,000 from the market forecast of 7,000.The euro/yen pair fell from 174.420 to 173.400. A downtrend has emerged along the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the price is moving along the -2σ line of the Bollinger Bands, and on the daily chart, the price has broken below the 20-period MA line—which had previously served as support—with a real body candle.

Today’s economic indicators include New Zealand housing permits at 6:45, the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey at 8:50, the UK Nationwide House Price Index at 15:00, the German Manufacturing PMI at 16:55, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 17:00, and the UKManufacturing PMI, at 18:00: Eurozone Consumer Price Index, at 18:55: UK remarks by a Bank of England MPC member, at 20:00: U.S. Mortgage Applications Index, at 21:15: U.S. ADP Employment Report, at 22:45: U.S. PMI Purchasing Managers’ Index,11:00 PM: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Construction Spending, and 11:30 PM: U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories. We will be watching closely to see if the euro, which has fallen against the yen, will continue to weaken.