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With the euro/yen pair pulling back amid an uptrend, attention is turning to its potential for recovery

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With the euro/yen pair pulling back amid an uptrend, attention is turning to its potential for recovery

30.09.2025

Today's Highlights
  1. Remarks by ECB President Lagarde
  2. Japan: Industrial Production

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the U.S. dollar was the weakest throughout the day. The euro rose against the dollar from 1.1695 to 1.1753.The price rose along the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart to just below the 200-period SMA. On the 4-hour chart, a pullback from the +3σ level of the Bollinger Bands is visible, and on the daily chart, the price has retreated from just below the 20-period MA to just below it. Meanwhile, during today’s Asian trading session, the U.S. dollar is once again showing signs of strength.

Despite the European business sentiment index for September, released yesterday, improving to 95.5 from 95.2 the previous month, the euro fell against the yen. The euro/yen pair fell from 175.010 to 173.990.On the hourly chart, the price moved from above the 20-period moving average (MA) to below it and briefly dipped below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA). On the 4-hour chart, the price has fallen to the 75-period MA line, and on the daily chart, it is currently pulling back from the +2σ level of the Bollinger Bands.

Today, at 8:50, the Bank of Japan will release the minutes of its Monetary Policy Meeting, along with Japan’s industrial production, retail sales, and department store/supermarket sales figures; at 9:00, New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence Index will be released; at 10:30, Australia’s housing construction permits will be released;at 1:30 p.m., the RBA policy rate and statement; at 2:00 p.m., Japan’s housing starts; at 2:30 p.m., a press conference by RBA Governor Block; at 3:00 p.m., the UK’s real GDP; at 4:55 p.m., Germany’sEmployment Report, 21:00 Germany:Consumer Price Index, 21:50: Remarks by ECB President Lagarde, 22:00: U.S. Housing Price Index, 22:45: U.S. Chicago PMI, 23:00: U.S. JOLTS Job Openings, and the U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.We’ll be watching for potential recovery in the EUR/JPY pair, which pulled back within an uptrend.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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All eyes are on whether the euro’s decline against the yen will continue
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