Should investors be wary of market risks stemming from the U.S. government shutdown?

Should investors be wary of market risks stemming from the U.S. government shutdown?

02.10.2025

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar fell against the yen despite the September ISM Manufacturing Index, released yesterday, coming in at 49.1—up from the previous month’s 48.7 and exceeding the market forecast of 49.0. The USD/JPY pair fell from 148.210 to 146.588.On the hourly chart, the price has moved from above the 20-period moving average (MA) to below it. On the 4-hour chart, the price has fallen to near the -2σ level of the Bollinger Bands. On the daily chart, the price has fallen for four consecutive days and has broken below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) during a retest.

European currencies saw the euro fluctuate against the U.S. dollar after the preliminary September Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the eurozone, released yesterday, showed a year-over-year increase from 2.0% in the previous month to 2.2%.The EUR/USD pair traded between 1.1715 and 1.1778, fluctuating throughout the session around the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the pair is seeking direction while finding support at the 200-period simple moving average (SMA), and on the daily chart, it is currently attempting to break above the 20-period MA.

Today’s economic indicators include: Japan’s monetary base and foreign/domestic securities investment at 8:50; Australia’s trade balance and the RBA’s semi-annual Financial Stability Report at 10:30; Japan’s Consumer Sentiment Index at 14:00; Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index at 15:30; remarks by Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida at 15:35; France’s budget balance at 15:45;at 6:00 PM: Eurozone Employment Statistics; at 8:30 PM: U.S. Challenger Layoffs; at 11:30 PM: U.S. Weekly Natural Gas Inventories; and remarks by Logan, President of the Dallas Fed.Note that the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and U.S. Durable Goods Orders have been postponed due to the partial U.S. government shutdown. We should remain vigilant regarding market risks associated with the government shutdown, particularly whether the U.S. dollar, which has already weakened against the yen, will show further weakness.