Attention is turning to the potential for a rebound in the euro, which has been falling for some time

Attention is turning to the potential for a rebound in the euro, which has been falling for some time

31.07.2025

In yesterday’s U.S. trading session, the U.S. dollar—having weathered the FOMC meeting—reached its strongest level during U.S. trading hours. The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.1571 to 1.1400, declining along the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, a band walk along the -2σ line of the Bollinger Bands was observed, while the daily chart showed a fifth consecutive day of decline. The RSI plummeted from 60 to 32.We will need to watch for any directional changes to see if the US dollar maintains its strength during today’s US trading hours.

Among European currencies, the euro fell against the pound. The EUR/GBP pair dropped from 0.8659 to 0.8610. The decline occurred as the pair encountered resistance at the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the pair is currently hovering just below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA), with the market in the midst of either breaking below the 200-SMA or rebounding from it. On the daily chart, the pair has been falling for three consecutive days. We will be watching price movements during European trading hours to see if the euro, which has been falling against the pound, will recover.

Today’s schedule includes Australian retail sales and housing construction permits at 10:30; the Bank of Japan’s policy rate decision and statement around noon; Japanese housing starts and construction orders at 14:00; the German import price index at 15:00; a press conference by BOJ Governor Ueda at 15:30; Swiss retail sales;at 9:00 PM, German CPI; at 9:30 PM, Canadian GDP, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, and U.S. PCE Deflator; at 10:45 PM, the U.S. Chicago PMI; and at 11:30 PM, U.S. weekly natural gas inventories. I want to carefully assess the potential for a recovery in the euro, which has been falling.

Past Market Reports

1. 17.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

2. 16.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

3. 15.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

4. 14.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

5. 13.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

6. 10.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

7. 09.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

8. 08.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

9. 07.04.2026

   Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran

10. 06.04.2026

    Investors should be wary of sudden spikes in volatility while major markets are closed