Attention Turns to the Euro’s Potential for Recovery Amid Continued Declines

Attention Turns to the Euro’s Potential for Recovery Amid Continued Declines

31.07.2025

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the U.S. dollar—having weathered the FOMC meeting—reached its strongest level during U.S. trading hours. The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.1571 to 1.1400, moving downward along the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, a band walk along the -2σ line of the Bollinger Bands was observed, while the daily chart showed a fifth consecutive day of decline. The RSI plummeted from 60 to 32. We will be watching closely to see if the U.S. dollar maintains its strength during today’s U.S. trading hours.

Among European currencies, the euro fell against the pound. The EUR/GBP pair dropped from 0.8659 to 0.8610. It fell as it encountered resistance at the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading just below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA), currently in the process of either breaking below it or rebounding from it. On the daily chart, the pair has been falling for three consecutive days. We will be watching price action during European trading hours to see if the euro, which has been falling against the pound, will recover.

Today’s schedule includes Australian retail sales and housing construction permits at 10:30; the Bank of Japan’s policy rate decision and statement around noon; Japanese housing starts and construction orders at 14:00; and the GermanImport Price Index, at 3:30 p.m. a press conference by BOJ Governor Ueda and Swiss retail sales,at 9:00 PM, Germany’s Consumer Price Index; at 9:30 PM, Canada’s GDP, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, and the U.S. PCE Deflator; at 10:45 PM, the U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index; and at 11:30 PM, U.S. weekly natural gas inventories.We want to carefully assess the euro’s potential for recovery as it continues to decline.