Should we be wary of the downside potential in the falling CHF/JPY pair?

Should we be wary of the downside potential in the falling CHF/JPY pair?

30.07.2025

In yesterday’s U.S. currency trading, the Canadian dollar fell against the yen ahead of today’s Bank of Canada (BOC) policy rate announcement. The CAD/JPY pair fell from 108.213 to 107.691. On the hourly chart, the price has moved from above the 20-period moving average (MA) to below it. On the 4-hour chart, the price has fallen from the +2σ to the -2σ levels of the Bollinger Bands, while on the daily chart, it remains above the 20-period MA.Since the market expects the BOC to keep rates unchanged at 2.75% today, traders should remain vigilant regarding price movements around the time of the announcement.

Following the euro, the Swiss franc also weakened. The CHF/JPY pair fell from 185.012 to 183.770, declining along the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, a downtrend is beginning to form along the 10-period MA, while on the daily chart, the pair is on the verge of breaking below the 20-period MA support line. We will need to keep a close eye on the direction of the Swiss franc during today’s U.S. trading session to see if resistance continues to weigh on the currency.

Today’s schedule includes the NZ ANZ Business Confidence Index at 10:00, the Australian CPI at 10:30, French Q2 GDP at 14:30, German real GDP at 17:00, the Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index at 18:00, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 20:00, the U.S. ADP Employment Report at 21:15,at 9:30 PM, US Q2 GDP and the US GDP Deflator; at 10:45 PM, the Bank of Canada (BOC) interest rate decision and policy statement; at 11:30 PM, a press conference by BOC Governor Macklem; at 3:00 AM, the FOMC interest rate decision and policy statement; and at 3:30 AM, a press conference by Fed Chair Powell.We should pay close attention to the downside potential of the CHF/JPY pair, which has been falling.

Past Market Reports

1. 17.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

2. 16.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

3. 15.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

4. 14.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

5. 13.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

6. 10.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

7. 09.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

8. 08.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

9. 07.04.2026

   Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran

10. 06.04.2026

    Investors should be wary of sudden spikes in volatility while major markets are closed