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Should We Be Wary of Further Downward Moves in the Franc-Yen Pair, Which Has Been Falling Continuously?

Market Report

Should We Be Wary of Further Downward Moves in the Franc-Yen Pair, Which Has Been Falling Continuously?

30.07.2025

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. FOMC Policy Rate and Statement Announcement
  2. Press Conference by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Powell

In yesterday’s U.S. currency trading, the Canadian dollar fell against the yen ahead of today’s Bank of Canada (BOC) policy rate announcement. The CAD/JPY pair fell from 108.213 to 107.691. It moved from above the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart to below it.On the 4-hour chart, the price has fallen from the +2σ to the -2σ levels of the Bollinger Bands, while on the daily chart, it remains above the 20-period moving average. Since the market expects the BOC to keep rates unchanged at 2.75% today, traders should remain vigilant for price movements around the time of the announcement.

Following the euro, the Swiss franc also weakened. The CHF/JPY pair fell from 185.012 to 183.770, tracking the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, a downtrend along the 10-period moving average is taking shape, and on the daily chart, the pair is on the verge of breaking below the 20-period moving average support line. We’ll need to keep a close eye on the direction of the Swiss franc during today’s U.S. trading session to see if resistance continues to weigh on the currency.

Today’s schedule includes the NZ ANZ Business Confidence Index at 10:00, the Australian Consumer Price Index at 10:30, France’s Q2 GDP at 14:30, Germany’s real GDP at 17:00, and the Eurozone’sBusiness Sentiment Index, at 8:00 PM the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index, at 9:15 PM the U.S. ADP Employment Report, at 9:30 PM the U.S. Q2 GDP and U.S. GDP Deflator,at 10:45 PM, the Canadian BOC policy rate and statement; at 11:30 PM, a press conference by BOC Governor McClem; at 3:00 AM, the U.S. FOMC policy rate and statement; and at 3:30 AM, a press conference by Fed Chair Powell.We should pay close attention to the downside potential of the CHF/JPY pair, which has been falling steadily.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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