Should we be wary of further downside in the franc-yen pair, which has been falling?
30.07.2025
- U.S. FOMC Policy Rate and Statement Release
- Press Conference by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Powell
In yesterday’s U.S. currency trading, the Canadian dollar fell against the yen ahead of today’s Bank of Canada (BOC) policy rate announcement. The CAD/JPY pair dropped from 108.213 to 107.691. On the hourly chart, it has moved from above the 20-period moving average (MA) to below it. On the 4-hour chart, it has fallen from the +2σ to the -2σ levels of the Bollinger Bands, while on the daily chart, it remains above the 20-period MA.With the BOC expected to keep rates unchanged at 2.75% today, traders should remain vigilant for price movements around the time of the announcement.
Following the euro, the Swiss franc also weakened. The CHF/JPY pair fell from 185.012 to 183.770, moving downward along the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, a downtrend is forming along the 10-period MA, and on the daily chart, the pair is on the verge of breaking below the support line formed by the 20-period MA. We will need to keep a close eye on the direction of the Swiss franc during today’s U.S. trading session to see if resistance continues to weigh on the currency.
Today, at 10:00, New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence Index; at 10:30, Australia’s Consumer Price Index; at 14:30, France’s Q2 GDP; at 17:00, Germany’s Real GDP; at 18:00, the Eurozone’s Economic Sentiment Index; at 20:00, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index; at 21:15, the U.S. ADP Employment Report;at 9:30 PM, US Q2 GDP and the US GDP Deflator; at 10:45 PM, the Bank of Canada (BOC) interest rate decision and policy statement; at 11:30 PM, a press conference by BOC Governor Macklem; at 3:00 AM, the FOMC interest rate decision and policy statement; and at 3:30 AM, a press conference by Fed Chair Powell.We should pay close attention to the downside potential of the CHF/JPY pair, which has been falling.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
