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Should We Keep an Eye on the Upside Potential of the Swiss Franc, Which Rebounded Sharply at the End of the Month?

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Should We Keep an Eye on the Upside Potential of the Swiss Franc, Which Rebounded Sharply at the End of the Month?

01.08.2025

Today's Highlights
  1. UK Nationwide Home Prices
  2. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI

In yesterday’s U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar rose against the yen after the U.S. June PCE Deflator—released yesterday—showed year-over-year and month-over-month increases, including the core index. The USD/JPY pair rose from 148.592 to 150.842, with a sharp surge observed from the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, a band walk along the +2σ line of the Bollinger Bands was observed, while on the daily chart, the RSI rose from 60 to 70. The pair broke above the key 150-yen level and set a new high for the month.

Among European currencies, the Swiss franc was the strongest during U.S. trading hours. The franc/yen pair rose from 182.657 to 185.695, rebounding sharply from the -3σ to the +2σ levels of the Bollinger Bands.On the 4-hour chart, the 200 SMA is acting as a support level, triggering a rebound, while on the daily chart, the candlesticks—which had been trading below the 20 MA—have swung back above it. We will be watching closely to see if the Swiss franc continues to rise during today’s U.S. trading hours.

Today’s economic indicators include Japan’s unemployment rate at 8:30, Australia’s second-quarter Producer Price Index at 10:30, the UK’s Nationwide House Price Index at 15:00, France’s Manufacturing PMI at 16:50, Germany’sManufacturing PMI, 17:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, 17:30 UK Manufacturing PMI, 18:00 Eurozone Consumer Price Index, 21:30 U.S. Employment Report,U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 22:45, U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and U.S. Construction Spending at 23:00. We want to carefully assess the upside potential for the Swiss franc, which rebounded sharply at the end of the month.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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