Should we be wary of the euro's downside potential against the U.S. dollar?

Should we be wary of the euro's downside potential against the U.S. dollar?

11.07.2025

In yesterday’s U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar fell against the yen. The USD/JPY pair traded between 146.785 and 145.749, with price action remaining within the range of the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the pair has pulled back from the +2σ line of the Bollinger Bands toward the centerline, while on the daily chart, it continues to trade above the 10-period moving average.

European currencies fell against the U.S. dollar after Germany’s June consumer price index, released yesterday, showed that both the CPI and HICP remained unchanged from the previous month on a year-over-year basis.The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.1749 to 1.1662. On the hourly chart, the price has moved from above the 20-period moving average (MA) to below it. On the 4-hour chart, the 20-period MA has shifted from a support line to a resistance line, and on the daily chart, the price is currently testing whether it will find support at the 20-period MA line.

Today’s economic indicators include the UK’s monthly GDP, Germany’s Consumer Price Index, UK manufacturing output, UK trade balance, and UK industrial production at 3:00 PM; France’s Consumer Price Index at 3:45 PM; Canada’s employment report and housing starts at 9:30 PM; and the U.S. budget balance at 3:00 AM. We should remain highly vigilant regarding the downside potential of the euro, which has been falling against the U.S. dollar.

Past Market Reports

1. 17.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

2. 16.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

3. 15.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

4. 14.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

5. 13.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

6. 10.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

7. 09.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

8. 08.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

9. 07.04.2026

   Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran

10. 06.04.2026

    Investors should be wary of sudden spikes in volatility while major markets are closed