Caution Advised on Upside Potential for the CAD/JPY Pair Following the Drop in the Unemployment Rate

Caution Advised on Upside Potential for the CAD/JPY Pair Following the Drop in the Unemployment Rate

14.07.2025

Last weekend, the Canadian dollar rose against the yen following the release of Canada’s June employment statistics on the 11th, which showed the unemployment rate falling by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s 7.0% to 6.9%. The CAD/JPY pair rose from 106.567 to 107.849, showing an uptrend along the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, the candlesticks have extended to the +3σ level of the Bollinger Bands, while on the daily chart, the price has rebounded from retesting the 200-day SMA as a support level.

Among European currencies, the pound weakened against the U.S. dollar. The GBP/USD pair fell from 1.3585 to 1.3481. A downtrend has formed along the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI has dropped to 28. The price is touching the -3σ line of the Bollinger Bands. On the daily chart, the price has broken significantly below the 20-period MA, which had previously served as support.

Today’s economic indicators include Japanese machinery orders at 8:50 a.m., Japanese industrial production and the Japanese tertiary industry activity index at 1:30 p.m., Swiss producer import prices at 3:30 p.m., and Canadian wholesale sales at 9:30 p.m. We should remain cautious about the upside potential of the CAD/JPY pair, which has risen on the back of a decline in the unemployment rate.

Past Market Reports

1. 17.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

2. 16.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

3. 15.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

4. 14.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

5. 13.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

6. 10.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

7. 09.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

8. 08.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

9. 07.04.2026

   Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran

10. 06.04.2026

    Investors should be wary of sudden spikes in volatility while major markets are closed