Caution Over Upside Potential for the Canadian Dollar/Yen Pair, Which Rallied on a Drop in the Unemployment Rate

Caution Over Upside Potential for the Canadian Dollar/Yen Pair, Which Rallied on a Drop in the Unemployment Rate

14.07.2025

Last weekend, the Canadian dollar rose against the yen following the release of Canada’s June employment statistics on the 11th, which showed the unemployment rate falling by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s 7.0% to 6.9%. The CAD/JPY pair rose from 106.567 to 107.849.An uptrend was observed along the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, candlesticks extended to the +3σ level of the Bollinger Bands, while on the daily chart, the pair rebounded from a retest of the 200-period simple moving average (SMA), which served as support.

Among European currencies, the pound weakened against the U.S. dollar. The GBP/USD pair fell from 1.3585 to 1.3481. A downtrend has developed along the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI has dropped to 28. The price is touching the -3σ line of the Bollinger Bands.On the daily chart, the price has broken significantly below the 20-period moving average, which had previously served as support, with a real-body candle.

Today’s economic indicators include Japan’s machinery orders at 8:50, Japan’s industrial production and tertiary sector activity index at 13:30, Switzerland’s producer import prices at 15:30, and Canada’s wholesale sales at 21:30.We should remain cautious about the upside potential for the CAD/JPY pair, which has risen on the back of a decline in the unemployment rate.