Should we be wary of currency fluctuations caused by the U.S. jobs report?

Should we be wary of currency fluctuations caused by the U.S. jobs report?

03.07.2025

In yesterday’s U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar rose against the yen. The USD/JPY pair climbed from 143.330 to 144.234. Price action was observed crossing the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI has rebounded from the 30 level, and on the daily chart, a price reversal was observed after touching the -2σ line of the Bollinger Bands.With the U.S. jobs report scheduled for release today—one day earlier than usual—we should remain vigilant for volatility caused by the data release.

Among European currencies, the euro fell against the U.S. dollar.The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.1810 to 1.1746. On the hourly chart, the price has moved from above the 20-period moving average (MA) to below it. On the 4-hour chart, divergence is observed between the RSI and the candlesticks, and on the daily chart, the price action along the +2σ Bollinger Band is beginning to break down. However, since no particular divergence is visible on the weekly chart, traders should pay close attention to price movements during U.S. trading hours.

Today’s schedule includes Japan’s foreign and domestic securities investment data at 8:50, Australia’s trade balance at 10:30, Germany’s non-manufacturing PMI at 16:55, the Eurozone’s services PMI at 17:00, the UK’s services PMI at 17:30, and the Eurozone’sECB Governing Council Meeting Minutes, 9:30 PM: US Initial Jobless Claims, US Trade Balance, US Employment Report, and Canada’s International Merchandise Trade; 10:45 PM: US PMI Purchasing Managers’ Index; and 11:00 PM: US Manufacturing New Orders, US Durable Goods Orders, and US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index. We should remain highly vigilant regarding currency strength and weakness following the US Employment Report.

Past Market Reports

1. 17.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

2. 16.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

3. 15.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

4. 14.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

5. 13.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

6. 10.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

7. 09.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

8. 08.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

9. 07.04.2026

   Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran

10. 06.04.2026

    Investors should be wary of sudden spikes in volatility while major markets are closed