Caution Advised Regarding Currency Strength and Weakness Following U.S. Employment Data
03.07.2025
- U.S. Employment Report
- U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index
In yesterday's U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar rose against the yen. The USD/JPY pair climbed from 143.330 to 144.234. Price action was observed crossing the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI has rebounded from the 30 level, and on the daily chart, a price reversal was observed after the price touched the -2σ line of the Bollinger Bands.During today’s U.S. trading session, the U.S. employment report is scheduled for release one day earlier than usual, so we should remain vigilant for volatility resulting from the data release.
Among European currencies, the euro fell against the U.S. dollar.The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.1810 to 1.1746. On the hourly chart, the price has moved from above the 20-period moving average (MA) to below it. On the 4-hour chart, divergence is observed between the RSI and the candlesticks, and on the daily chart, the band walk along the +2σ line of the Bollinger Bands is beginning to break down. On the other hand, no particular divergence is visible on the weekly chart, so we should pay close attention to price movements during U.S. trading hours.
Today’s schedule includes Japan’s foreign and domestic securities investment data at 8:50, Australia’s trade balance at 10:30, Germany’s non-manufacturing PMI at 16:55, the Eurozone’s services PMI at 17:00, the UK’s services PMI at 17:30, and the Eurozone’sECB Governing Council Meeting Minutes, at 9:30 PM: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. Trade Balance, U.S. Employment Report, and Canada’s International Merchandise Trade; at 10:45 PM: U.S. PMI Purchasing Managers’ Index; and at 11:00 PM: U.S. Manufacturing New Orders, U.S. Durable Goods Orders, and U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index. We should remain highly vigilant regarding currency strength and weakness driven by the U.S. Employment Report.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
