Should We Wait and See How Much Further the Swiss Franc Will Rise?
02.07.2025
- U.S. Challenger Job Cuts
- U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index
In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar fell against the yen despite the U.S. June PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) released yesterday improving to 49.0 from 48.5 the previous month. The USD/JPY pair fell from 144.033 to 142.689.The pair fell after encountering resistance at the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the candlesticks have fallen to the -3σ level of the Bollinger Bands, and on the daily chart, the price has dropped to a level that marks a new low for the month.
Among European currencies, the Swiss franc strengthened slightly, second only to the Japanese yen. The USD/CHF pair fell from 0.7945 to 0.7873. Price action was seen fluctuating around the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, the downward trend along the 10-period moving average continues, and on the daily chart, the pair has hit a new year-to-date low. We will need to watch price action during European trading hours to see if the Swiss franc can maintain its strength against the U.S. dollar.
Today’s economic indicators include Japan’s monetary base at 8:50, Australia’s housing construction permits and retail sales at 10:30, France’s fiscal balance at 15:45, the Eurozone’s employment statistics at 18:00, remarks by MPC member Taylor at 19:30,at 20:00, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index; at 20:30, U.S. Challenger Layoffs; at 21:15, U.S. ADP Employment Report; at 23:15, remarks by ECB President Lagarde; and at 23:30, U.S. weekly crude oil inventories.We intend to cautiously monitor the upside potential of the Swiss franc, which continues to rise.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
