All eyes are on whether European currencies will gain ground while U.S. markets are closed

All eyes are on whether European currencies will gain the upper hand while U.S. markets are closed

04.07.2025

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the dollar rose following the release of the U.S. June employment report, which showed the unemployment rate falling by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1% and nonfarm payrolls coming in at 147,000—exceeding the market forecast of 114,000.The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.1809 to 1.1717. On the hourly chart, the price shifted from below the 20-period moving average (MA) to below it again. On the daily chart, the price has softened from a band walk at the +2σ level of the Bollinger Bands down to the 10-period MA.

Among European currencies, the Swiss franc rose against the yen. The CHF/JPY pair climbed from 181.083 to 182.446. It surged from the -2σ to the +3σ levels on the hourly Bollinger Bands. On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to move within the bands along the 20-period moving average, and the daily chart shows a similar price movement. It will be worth watching whether the Swiss franc maintains its strength on this final day of the week.

Today’s economic indicators include the Japanese Household Expenditure Survey at 8:30 a.m., German new manufacturing orders at 3:00 p.m., French industrial production and French manufacturing output at 3:45 p.m., the UK Construction PMI at 5:30 p.m., the Eurozone Producer Price Index at 6:00 p.m., and remarks by MPC member Taylor at 2:30 a.m.With U.S. markets closed, we will be closely monitoring the direction of the market to see if European currencies gain the upper hand.