All eyes are on whether European currencies will gain the upper hand while U.S. markets are closed.

All eyes are on whether European currencies will gain the upper hand while U.S. markets are closed.

04.07.2025

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar rose following the release of the June U.S. employment report, which showed the unemployment rate falling by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1% and nonfarm payrolls coming in at 147,000—exceeding market expectations of 114,000.The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.1809 to 1.1717. On the hourly chart, the price moved from below the 20-period moving average (MA) to above it and then back down. On the daily chart, the price has softened from a band walk along the +2σ line of the Bollinger Bands to the 10-period MA.

Among European currencies, the Swiss franc rose against the yen. The CHF/JPY pair rose from 181.083 to 182.446. It surged from the -2σ to the +3σ levels of the hourly Bollinger Bands.On the 4-hour chart, the price continues to move along the 20-period moving average (MA) within the Bollinger Bands, and the daily chart shows a similar price pattern to the 4-hour chart. It will be interesting to see if the Swiss franc maintains its strength today, the final day of the week.

Today’s economic indicators include the Japan Household Expenditure Survey at 8:30, Germany’s Manufacturing New Orders at 15:00, France’sIndustrial Production and Manufacturing Output at 15:45, the UK Construction PMI at 17:30, the Eurozone Producer Price Index at 18:00, and remarks by MPC member Taylor at 26:30.With U.S. markets closed, we will be closely monitoring the market direction to see if European currencies gain the upper hand.