All eyes are on whether European currencies will gain the upper hand while U.S. markets are closed

All eyes are on whether European currencies will gain the upper hand while U.S. markets are closed

04.07.2025

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the dollar rose following the release of the U.S. June employment report, which showed the unemployment rate falling by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1% and nonfarm payrolls coming in at 147,000—exceeding the market forecast of 114,000.The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.1809 to 1.1717. On the hourly chart, the price shifted from below the 20-period moving average (MA) to below it again. On the daily chart, the price has softened from a band walk along the +2σ line of the Bollinger Bands down to the 10-period MA.

Among European currencies, the Swiss franc rose against the yen. The CHF/JPY pair climbed from 181.083 to 182.446. It surged from the -2σ to the +3σ levels on the hourly Bollinger Bands. On the 4-hour chart, the price continues to move within the bands along the 20-period moving average, and the daily chart shows similar price action. We will be watching to see if the Swiss franc maintains its strength on this final day of the week.

Today’s economic indicators include the Japanese Household Expenditure Survey at 8:30 a.m., German new manufacturing orders at 3:00 p.m., French industrial production and French manufacturing output at 3:45 p.m., the UK Construction PMI at 5:30 p.m., the Eurozone Producer Price Index at 6:00 p.m., and remarks by MPC member Taylor at 2:30 a.m.With U.S. markets closed, we will be closely monitoring the direction of the market to see if European currencies gain the upper hand.

Past Market Reports

1. 17.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

2. 16.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

3. 15.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

4. 14.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

5. 13.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

6. 10.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

7. 09.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

8. 08.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

9. 07.04.2026

   Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran

10. 06.04.2026

    Investors should be wary of sudden spikes in volatility while major markets are closed