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With the euro facing resistance on the upside, should we be wary of downside potential?

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With the euro facing resistance on the upside, should we be wary of downside potential?

01.04.2024

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index)
  2. Israel: Manufacturing Output

Last weekend, the U.S. currency market was quiet as U.S. markets were closed for the Easter holiday, and the Canadian dollar fluctuated against the yen. The CAD/JPY pair traded between 111.582 and 111.900, closing with support at the 200-period SMA on the hourly chart.During today’s Asian session, the pair has risen to 111.980, reaching the +2σ level of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands. We will be watching closely to see if the Canadian dollar continues to strengthen against the yen.

European currencies saw the euro decline slightly against the pound after France’s February Producer Price Index (PPI), released on March 29, worsened year-over-year from the previous month’s -5.1% to -5.5%.The euro/pound pair fell from 0.8554 to 0.8522, moving across the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to decline along the -2σ line of the Bollinger Bands, while on the daily chart, it is trading below the centerline.

Today’s economic indicators include the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey for the first quarter at 8:50, Indonesia’s Manufacturing PMI at 9:30, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI at 10:45, Indonesia’s Consumer Price Index at 13:00, Turkey’s Manufacturing PMI at 16:00,7:00 p.m. Israel Manufacturing Production, 10:45 p.m. U.S. PMI Purchasing Managers’ Index, 11:00 p.m. U.S. Construction Spending and U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index, and 7:10 a.m. the following day: Australia’sremarks by RBA Deputy Governor Kent, and at 7:50, remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Cook. I want to carefully monitor the downside potential of the euro, which is facing resistance on the upside.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management with a particular focus on foreign exchange markets, and he also has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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