With the euro facing resistance on the upside, investors should watch for potential downside risk
01.04.2024
- U.S. PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index)
- Israel: Manufacturing Output
Last weekend, the U.S. currency market was quiet due to the Easter holiday, and the Canadian dollar traded in a narrow range against the yen. The CAD/JPY pair fluctuated between 111.582 and 111.900, closing with support at the 200-period SMA on the hourly chart.In Asian trading today, the pair has risen to 111.980, reaching the +2σ level of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands. We will be watching closely to see if the Canadian dollar continues to strengthen against the yen.
European currencies saw the euro decline slightly against the pound after France’s February Producer Price Index (PPI), released on March 29, worsened year-over-year from -5.1% in the previous month to -5.5%. The EUR/GBP pair fell from 0.8554 to 0.8522, moving across the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, the EUR/GBP pair continues to decline along the -2σ line of the Bollinger Bands, and on the daily chart, it is trading below the centerline.
Today’s economic indicators include the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey for the first quarter at 8:50, Indonesia’s Manufacturing PMI at 9:30, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI at 10:45, Indonesia’s Consumer Price Index at 13:00, Turkey’s Manufacturing PMI at 16:00,at 7:00 PM, Israel’s Manufacturing Production; at 10:45 PM, the U.S. PMI Purchasing Managers’ Index; at 11:00 PM, U.S. Construction Spending and the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index; at 7:10 AM the following day, remarks by RBA Deputy Governor Kent; and at 7:50 AM, remarks by Fed Governor Cook. I intend to closely monitor the downside potential of the euro, which is facing resistance on the upside.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
