Will the U.S. dollar strengthen or should we be cautious following remarks by key figures?
02.04.2024
- U.S. Manufacturing Orders Index
- Mester (U.S.): Remarks by the President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank
In U.S. currency markets yesterday, the U.S. dollar rose during U.S. trading hours after the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index for March, released yesterday, rebounded to 50.3 from the previous month’s 47.8, returning to the benchmark level of 50.The U.S. dollar also gained ground against the Japanese yen, which had been trading firm. The USD/JPY pair rose from 151.206 to 151.785. With yesterday’s rise, USD/JPY is now just shy of this year’s high of 152 yen. We will be watching closely to see if the U.S. dollar continues to rise while maintaining this momentum.
Among European currencies, the euro fell sharply against the U.S. dollar. The EUR/USD pair dropped from 1.0798 to 1.0731. The hourly RSI fell below 30—the oversold level—to 18.On the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD RSI has also fallen below 30, currently standing at 25. On the daily chart, the price has fallen to the -2σ level of the Bollinger Bands, so we should remain cautious to see if it finds support at the recent low of 1.0694.
Today, the RBA meeting minutes will be released at 9:30 a.m., the UK Nationwide House Price Index at 3:00 p.m., Swiss retail sales at 3:30 p.m., the Swiss Manufacturing PMI at 4:30 p.m., the UK Manufacturing PMI and UK money supply at 5:30 p.m.,at 6:00 PM, South Africa’s Manufacturing PMI; at 9:00 PM, Germany’s Consumer Price Index; at 11:00 PM, U.S. JOLTS Job Openings and U.S. Manufacturing Orders Index; at 11:10 PM, remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman; at 1:00 AM, remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Williams:Speech by NY Fed President Williams, and at 25:05, U.S. Speech by Mester, President of the Cleveland Fed. We will carefully monitor price movements to see if the U.S. dollar strengthens in response to these key speeches.
