Will Market Participants Take a Wait-and-See Approach to Currency Strength and Weakness on the Last Day of the Fiscal Year?

Will Market Participants Take a Wait-and-See Approach to Currency Strength and Weakness on the Last Day of the Fiscal Year?

29.03.2024

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar rose against the euro after the University of Michigan’s March Consumer Sentiment Index, released yesterday, improved to 79.4 from 76.5 the previous month.The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.0827 to 1.0774. A downtrend has developed along the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the price is moving along the -2σ line of the Bollinger Bands, so we should watch for any shifts in market sentiment following today’s remarks by key officials.

European currencies faced resistance, as the euro struggled to gain ground despite yesterday’s release of Germany’s March employment statistics showing the unemployment rate remained unchanged from the previous month at 5.9%. The euro/yen pair fell from 163.858 to 163.112. The hourly RSI remained below 50, hovering at low levels.On the daily chart, the pair is trading just below the 20-day moving average, while the middle line of the Bollinger Bands is trending upward, so we will be watching closely to see if any changes occur on the last trading day of the month.

Today’s economic indicators include the Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index and Japan Employment Statistics at 8:30, Japan Industrial Production at 8:50, Turkey’s Current Account Balance at 16:00, Thailand’s Trade Balance at 16:30,at 16:45: France’s Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, and Consumer Spending; at 21:30: U.S. Personal Income, Wholesale Inventories, and PCE Deflator; at 24:15: U.S. Daily:Remarks by the President of the San Francisco Fed, and at 24:30, remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Powell. I intend to carefully monitor currency strength and weakness on this final day of the fiscal year.