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Will the euro, which is expected to remain unchanged following the ECB decision, show any movement after the economic data is released?

Market Report

Will the euro, which is expected to remain unchanged following the ECB decision, show any movement after the economic data is released?

25.01.2024

Today's Highlights
  1. Europe: ECB Policy Rate and Statement Release
  2. France: Number of Unemployed

In the previous day’s U.S. currency trading, U.S. Treasury yields softened during U.S. trading hours, causing the U.S. dollar to decline against the euro. The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.0841 to 1.0932. A rebound was observed after the pair broke well above the 200-period SMA on the hourly chart.From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair is forming an “expansion” pattern on the 4-hour chart, with both the upper and lower boundaries widening. Therefore, we will be closely monitoring whether the price will trend in one direction during U.S. trading hours.

Ahead of today’s ECB policy rate announcement, the euro traded without a clear direction.The euro/yen pair fell slightly from 161.067 to 160.176. During today’s Asian trading session, it has been trading in a narrow range around 160.784. While the market expects the ECB to keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.5% today, we will be watching closely to see if the euro continues to weaken in the absence of any surprises.

Today, at 8:50 a.m., Japan’s foreign equity investment figures will be released; at 4:00 p.m., Sweden’s Producer Price Index; at 4:45 p.m., France’s Manufacturing Business Climate Index; at 6:00 p.m., Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index; and at 8:00 p.m., France’sunemployment figures, at 8:00 p.m. UK retail sales, at 9:00 p.m. Canada’s Business Barometer, at 10:00 p.m. U.S. building permits, at 10:15 p.m. the ECB’s policy rate announcement and statement, at 10:30 p.m. U.S. durable goods orders, U.S. GDP,U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. Wholesale Inventories, and U.S. GDP; at 10:45 p.m., the ECB’s Lagarde will hold a press conference; at midnight, U.S. New Home Sales; and at 3:00 a.m., a U.S. 7-year Treasury auction is scheduled.I want to closely monitor whether the euro, which is expected to remain unchanged following the ECB decision, will show any movement after the economic indicators are released.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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