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Should We Be Wary of a Broad-Based Decline in the Euro Following the ECB Announcement?

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Should We Be Wary of a Broad-Based Decline in the Euro Following the ECB Announcement?

26.01.2024

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. PCE Deflator
  2. Europe: Money Supply

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the Canadian dollar rose against the yen following the Bank of Canada’s policy rate announcement. The CAD/JPY pair rose from 108.928 to 109.681.It broke above the 20-period moving average (MA) on the 4-hour chart. Furthermore, the 4-hour RSI rebounded without reaching the oversold level of 30, and since the RSI on the higher-timeframe daily chart also continues to trend upward, we should keep an eye on the Canadian dollar’s upside potential during U.S. trading hours.

European currencies fell against the yen after the ECB announced yesterday that it would keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.75%, in line with market expectations. The euro/yen pair fell by about 1.3 yen, from 160.966 to 159.699.Although the euro/yen pair fell sharply, it has held firm at the support level of the 20-day moving average (MA) on the daily chart, and with the daily RSI at 55 providing some upward buffer, traders should remain cautious regarding the euro’s price movements during European trading hours.

Today’s economic indicators include the Japan/Tokyo Consumer Price Index at 8:30, the UK GfK Consumer Confidence Index at 9:01, Singapore’s Industrial Production at 14:00, and Germany’sGFK Consumer Confidence Index, at 16:45 the French Consumer Confidence Index, at 18:00 the Eurozone Money Supply, at 21:00 the Mexican Trade Balance,at 22:30, the U.S. PCE Deflator and U.S. Personal Income; at 23:00, the U.S. Dallas Fed Consumer Price Index; at 24:00, U.S. Pending Home Sales; and at 25:00, Canada’s Fiscal Balance.We will be watching closely to see if the euro will weaken across the board following the ECB announcement.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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Will the euro, which is expected to remain unchanged following the ECB meeting, show any movement after the economic data is released?

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All eyes are on whether the euro’s direction will become clear after the ECB meeting
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