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Will the Euro, Now the Weakest Currency Following a Deterioration in Germany’s Services PMI, Weaken Further, or Should We Wait and See?

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Will the Euro, Now the Weakest Currency Following a Decline in Germany’s Services PMI, Weaken Further, or Should We Wait and See?

18.12.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. Philippines Consumer Price Index
  2. Canada: New Home Price Index

Last weekend, U.S. currencies saw the following developments: On the 15th, theDecember New York Fed Manufacturing Index, released on the 15th, had deteriorated sharply from the previous month’s 9.1 to -14.5, the U.S. dollar rose against the yen because U.S. industrial production for November, also released on the same day, improved from the previous month’s -0.6% to +0.2%.The USD/JPY pair rebounded by about 100 pips from 141.408 to 142.448, avoiding a new low. We will be watching closely to see if the U.S. dollar continues to rebound against the yen.

Despite the improvement in Germany’s December manufacturing PMI—which rose to 43.1 from 42.6 the previous month, as announced last weekend—the euro became the weakest currency during European trading hours. The euro/yen pair fell from 156.496 to 154.406.This represented a contrasting price movement compared to the US dollar/yen pair, which rebounded. On the 4-hour chart, the euro/yen pair is seeing its upside capped by the 20-period moving average (MA), and on the daily chart, its attempt to continue rebounding from the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) has failed. Therefore, we should remain cautious as to whether the euro will weaken against the yen heading into the latter half of the week.

Today’s schedule includes the Czech Republic’s Producer Price Index at 17:00, Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index at 18:00, remarks by BOE Deputy Governor Broadbent at 19:30, Israel’s unemployment rate at 20:00, Mexico’s total demand at 21:00,at 10:00 p.m., the Philippine Consumer Price Index; at 10:30 p.m., the Canadian New Home Price Index; at midnight, the U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index; and at 1:30 a.m., a U.S. 6-month Treasury bill auction.We will carefully assess whether the euro—which has become the weakest currency following a decline in Germany’s services PMI—will continue to weaken.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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