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Will the market take a wait-and-see approach to the euro, given the decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index?

Market Report

Will the market take a wait-and-see approach to the euro, given the decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index?

19.12.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. European Consumer Price Index
  2. Hong Kong Employment Statistics

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the Canadian dollar, another U.S. currency, rebounded against the U.S. dollar. The USD/CAD pair rebounded from 1.3349 to 1.3409.This prevented a fourth consecutive day of losses. On the daily chart, USD/CAD has touched the -3σ level of the Bollinger Bands, and the daily RSI has fallen below the oversold threshold of 30 to 26. Therefore, we need to carefully assess whether the U.S. dollar’s rebound will continue during U.S. trading hours.

Despite the German IFO Business Climate Index for December, released yesterday, deteriorating to 86.4 from 87.3 the previous month, the euro rose slightly against the U.S. dollar.The EUR/USD pair rebounded from 1.0890 to 1.0930, breaking above the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the 20-period MA is acting as a support level, and prices have continued to rise during today’s Asian trading session. We will be closely monitoring whether the EUR/USD pair continues to rebound during European trading hours.

Today’s schedule includes a press conference by Bank of Japan Governor Ueda at 3:30 p.m., Switzerland’s trade balance at 4:00 p.m., Hong Kong’s employment statistics at 5:30 p.m., the Eurozone’s consumer price index at 7:00 p.m., Hungary’s policy interest rate at 8:00 p.m.,at 10:00 p.m., remarks by BOE Deputy Governor Breeden; at 10:30 p.m., U.S. housing starts, Canada’s industrial producer prices, Canada’s Consumer Price Index, and U.S. housing starts; at 11:30 p.m., remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve’s Barkin:Remarks by Richmond Fed President Barkin; at 2:30 a.m., remarks by Atlanta Fed President Bostic; and at 4:00 a.m., remarks by RBNZ Governor O’Rea. I intend to carefully monitor the euro’s movements following the deterioration in the Ifo Business Climate Index.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

Previous Article

Will the Euro, Now the Weakest Currency Following a Deterioration in Germany’s Services PMI, Weaken Further, or Should We Wait and See?

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With Canada’s CPI Unchanged, Should We Watch for Further Upside in the CAD/JPY Pair?
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