Will the market wait and see how the euro performs following the decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index?

Will the market wait and see how the euro performs following the decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index?

19.12.2023

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the Canadian dollar, another U.S. currency, fell against the U.S. dollar.The USD/CAD pair rebounded from 1.3349 to 1.3409, avoiding a fourth consecutive day of declines. On the daily chart, the USD/CAD has touched the -3σ line of the Bollinger Bands, and the daily RSI has fallen below the oversold level of 30 to 26. Therefore, we need to carefully assess whether the US dollar’s rebound will continue during US trading hours.

Despite the German IFO Business Climate Index for December, released yesterday, deteriorating to 86.4 from 87.3 the previous month, the euro rose slightly against the U.S. dollar.The EUR/USD pair rebounded from 1.0890 to 1.0930, breaking above the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the 20-period MA is acting as a support level, and prices have continued to rise during today’s Asian session. We will closely monitor whether the EUR/USD pair continues to rebound during the European session.

Today’s schedule includes a press conference by Bank of Japan Governor Ueda at 3:30 PM, Switzerland’s trade balance at 4:00 PM, Hong Kong’s employment statistics at 5:30 PM, the Eurozone’s consumer price index at 7:00 PM, Hungary’s policy rate at 8:00 PM, remarks by BOE Deputy Governor Breeden at 10:00 PM, and U.S.housing starts, Canada’s industrial producer prices, Canada’s CPI, and U.S. housing starts; at 11:30 PM, remarks by U.S. Richmond Fed President Barkin; at 2:30 AM, remarks by U.S. Atlanta Fed President Bostic; and at 4:00 AM, remarks by New Zealand RBNZ Governor O’Hara.I intend to closely monitor the euro’s movements following the deterioration in the Ifo Business Climate Index.

Past Market Reports

1. 21.04.2026New

   With the euro-Australian dollar pair hitting new lows this month, attention is turning to how much further it might fall

2. 20.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

3. 17.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

4. 16.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

5. 15.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

6. 14.04.2026

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

7. 13.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

8. 10.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

9. 09.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

10. 08.04.2026

    Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran