All eyes are on whether the euro’s upward trend will continue following the ECB meeting.

All eyes are on whether the euro’s upward trend will continue following the ECB meeting.

15.12.2023

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar was the weakest currency throughout the day, despite the fact that U.S. retail sales for November—released yesterday—showed a significant improvement, rising to +0.3% from -0.1% the previous month.The EUR/USD pair rose by just under 150 pips, from 1.0861 to 1.1009, significantly surpassing this month’s high. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD has risen sharply from just below the 20-day moving average (MA) on the weekly chart, and as the pattern is beginning to take on an expansionary shape, we should watch for a rebound and upward movement for the time being.

Following yesterday’s announcement of the ECB’s policy rate—which, as expected by the market, remained unchanged at 4.5%—the euro rose against the yen.The euro/yen pair rose from 153.838 to 156.057, avoiding a new low for the month. The pair rebounded after touching the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), and the focus is now on whether it will form a double bottom on the daily chart. We will be watching closely to see if the upward movement driven by short covering continues through the weekend.

Today, the French Consumer Price Index will be released at 4:45 p.m., the French Manufacturing/Services PMI at 5:15 p.m., and the GermanManufacturing/Services PMI at 5:30 PM, the Eurozone Manufacturing/Services PMI at 6:00 PM, the UK Manufacturing/Services PMI at 6:30 PM, the Eurozone Trade Balance at 7:00 PM, the Russian Policy Rate at 7:30 PM,at 22:15, Canadian housing starts; at 22:30, Canadian international securities turnover; at 22:30, U.S. New York Fed Manufacturing Index; at 23:15, U.S. industrial production; and at 23:45, U.S. Manufacturing/Services PMI.We will carefully monitor price movements over the weekend to see if the euro’s upward trend following the ECB announcement will continue.