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Will the euro rebound following the ECB meeting? Stay tuned.

Market Report

Will the euro rebound following the ECB meeting? Stay tuned.

14.12.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. Europe: ECB Policy Rate and Statement Release
  2. Switzerland: SMI Policy Rate and Statement Release

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, following the FOMC’s announcement that it would keep the policy rate unchanged at 5.5%, Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated, “We discussed the timing of rate cuts at today’s meeting” and “The policy rate is near its peak in this cycle.” As a result, the U.S. dollar weakened against all currencies.The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.0773 to 1.0896, gaining approximately 120 pips. From a technical perspective, since the EUR/USD has been rising from the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, it will be important to monitor whether the upward trend continues for the time being.

Ahead of today’s ECB policy rate announcement, the euro fell against the yen. The euro/yen pair dropped 3 yen, from 157.471 to 154.558.It has continued to test lower levels during today’s Asian trading session. Technically, the EUR/JPY pair is currently trading just below the daily 200-day simple moving average (SMA); a break below the 200-day SMA would result in the loss of a major support level, so traders should remain highly vigilant regarding price movements following today’s ECB announcement.

Today, at 3:30 p.m., India’s Wholesale Price Index will be released; at 4:00 p.m., Sweden’s Consumer Price Index; at 4:30 p.m., Switzerland’s Import Producer Prices; at 5:30 p.m., the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will announce its SMI policy rate and statement;at 6:00 PM, remarks by SNB Governor Jordan of Switzerland; at 9:00 PM, the Bank of England’s (BOE) policy rate and statement; at 10:15 PM, the European Central Bank’s (ECB)ECB policy rate and statement, 10:30 PM: U.S. initial jobless claims, Canadian manufacturing sales, U.S. retail sales, and U.S. import price index; 10:45 PM: Remarks by ECB President Lagarde; and 12:00 AM: U.S. business inventories.I will be closely monitoring the ECB announcement to see if the euro recovers.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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All eyes are on whether the euro’s upward trend will continue following the ECB announcement.
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