Will the U.S. dollar, which has been weakening due to falling long-term interest rates, rebound by the end of the month? This is something to watch.

Will the U.S. dollar, which has been weakening due to falling long-term interest rates, rebound by the end of the month? This is something to watch.

30.11.2023

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar weakened against the Swiss franc after data released yesterday showed that U.S. third-quarter GDP growth, driven by personal consumption, had declined to 3.6% from the previous reading of 4.0%.The USD/CHF pair fell for the fourth consecutive day, dropping just under 70 pips from 0.8783 to 0.8716. It hit a new three-month low. Since there is no support until the year’s low of 0.8544, traders should be aware of the possibility of further downside, albeit with some time-based consolidation along the way.

European currencies saw the euro fall slightly against the yen after the EU’s November consumer confidence index, released yesterday, matched the previous month’s reading of -16.9. The euro/yen pair fell from 162.255 to 161.131. On the daily chart, it has formed a double top, with both the lows and highs moving lower.Since the EUR/JPY pair is now falling below the 20-day moving average (20MA), which had served as a support line on the daily chart, we should remain vigilant for the possibility that the yen will strengthen further from the end of this month through the beginning of December, causing the euro to weaken against the yen.

Today, at 16:00: German retail sales, Thailand’s current account balance, and Turkey’s real GDP; at 16:30: Swiss retail sales and Thailand’s trade balance;at 4:45 p.m., France’s Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index; at 5:00 p.m., Switzerland’s KOF Leading Index; at 5:30 p.m., Hong Kong’s retail sales; at 5:55 p.m., Germany’sEmployment Report, 19:00 Eurozone Consumer Price Index, 22:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, Canada Real GDP, U.S. PCE Deflator, Eurozone remarks by ECB President Lagarde, 23:15 U.S. Williams:remarks by New York Fed President Williams; at 23:45, the U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index; and at 24:00, the U.S. Existing Home Sales Index. We will be watching closely to see if the U.S. dollar, which has been weakening due to falling interest rates, will recover by the end of the month.