Will the U.S. dollar, which has been weakening due to falling long-term interest rates, recover by the end of the month?

Will the U.S. dollar, which has been weakening due to falling long-term interest rates, recover by the end of the month?

30.11.2023

In yesterday’s U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar weakened against the Swiss franc after the U.S. third-quarter GDP growth rate, driven by personal consumption, was reported to have declined to 3.6% from the previous reading of 4.0%. The USD/CHF pair fell for the fourth consecutive day, dropping by just under 70 pips from 0.8783 to 0.8716. It hit a new low for the past three months.Since there is no support for USD/CHF until it reaches this year’s low of 0.8544, traders should be cautious of the possibility of further declines, albeit with some time-based consolidation in between.

European currencies saw the euro fall slightly against the yen after the EU’s November consumer confidence index, released yesterday, matched the previous month’s reading of -16.9. The euro/yen pair fell from 162.255 to 161.131. On the daily chart, it has formed a double top, with both the low and high points declining.As EUR/JPY is approaching the 20-day moving average (20MA), which previously served as support on the daily chart, we should remain vigilant for the possibility of further yen appreciation from the end of this month through early December, potentially causing the euro to weaken against the yen.

Today, at 4:00 PM: German retail sales, Thailand’s current account balance,Turkey’s real GDP at 4:00 PM, Swiss retail sales and Thailand’s trade balance at 4:30 PM, France’s consumer price index and producer price index at 4:45 PM, the Swiss KOF Leading Index at 5:00 PM, Hong Kong’s retail sales at 5:30 PM, German employment statistics at 5:55 PM, the EurozoneCPI at 19:00, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, Canada’s Real GDP, and U.S. PCE Deflator at 22:30, ECB President Lagarde’s remarks at 23:00, U.S. Chicago PMI at 23:45, and U.S. Existing Home Sales at 24:00.We will be watching closely to see if the US dollar, which has been weakening due to falling interest rates, will recover by the end of the month.