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Should We Wait and See Cautiously to See If the Yen’s Strength Will Continue?

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Should We Wait and See Cautiously to See If the Yen’s Strength Will Continue?

29.11.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. Wholesale Inventories
  2. Germany's Consumer Price Index

In yesterday’s trading, the U.S. dollar weakened against the Japanese yen, which was the strongest currency of the day. The USD/JPY pair fell from 148.819 to 146.669.Ahead of tomorrow’s month-end closing, the pair hit a new low for the month. On the daily chart, USD/JPY has already broken below the 75-day moving average (MA), and on the weekly chart, it is positioned just below the 20-day MA. We need to remain vigilant regarding the direction of the market to see if the U.S. dollar will continue to weaken against the yen.

Among European currencies, the Swiss franc became the second-weakest currency after the U.S. dollar, and the CHF/JPY pair fell from 168.942 to 167.406.From a technical perspective, the CHF/JPY pair rebounded after touching the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, while on the daily chart, the RSI has been trending downward from above 70 to 74. As the RSI is moving lower, it will be worth watching to see if the Swiss franc softens during European trading hours.

Today, at 4:00 p.m., Thailand’s benchmark interest rate, Sweden’s third-quarter GDP, and Turkey’s trade balance will be released;at 6:30 p.m., UK consumer credit balances and money supply; at 7:00 p.m., the Eurozone consumer confidence index and business sentiment; at 9:00 p.m., the U.S. MBA mortgage applications index; at 10:00 p.m., Germany’s consumer price index; at 10:30 p.m., Canada’s current account balance;U.S. Wholesale Inventories, at 22:30 U.S. Real GDP, at 24:05 remarks by Bank of England Governor Bailey, at 24:30 U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and at 28:00 the U.S. Beige Book are scheduled. We need to remain vigilant regarding the direction of the market to see if the yen’s appreciation trend will continue.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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Will the market wait and see how prices move at the end of the month amid the yen's strengthening trend?

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Will the U.S. dollar, which has been weakening due to falling long-term interest rates, rebound by the end of the month? This is something to watch.
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