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Should we be wary of the price movements in cross-yen pairs, which rebounded after the yen’s strength failed to hold?

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Should We Be Wary of the Price Movements in Cross-Yen Pairs, Which Rebounded After the Yen’s Strength Failed to Last?

23.11.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. UK Manufacturing/Services PMI (Preliminary)
  2. New Zealand: Third-Quarter Retail Sales

In the previous day’s U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar lost momentum toward the end of the U.S. trading session after the October U.S. existing home sales figure—released during U.S. trading hours—fell to 3.79 million from 3.96 million the previous month. The USD/JPY pair rose from 148.027 to 149.742.It subsequently retreated to 149.037. On the hourly chart, USD/JPY is forming an uptrend along the 20-day moving average (MA), and on the daily chart, the 75-day MA is acting as support, causing the pair to rebound. We will monitor price movements during U.S. trading hours to see if the U.S. dollar continues to rebound.

Ahead of today’s release of the minutes from the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council meeting, the euro rose against the yen. As the USD/JPY pair rebounded, the EUR/JPY pair followed suit, rising from 161.592 to 162.935.Although it had been trading below the 4-hour 20-period moving average (MA), it has now moved back above it. Since the euro/yen pair rebounded firmly after touching the daily 20-period MA, it will be worth watching to see if it continues to rise heading into next week.

Today, Norway’s third-quarter GDP will be released at 16:00, followed by France’s manufacturing and services PMI (flash estimates) at 17:15,at 5:30 p.m., Germany’s Manufacturing and Services PMIs (flash estimates); at 6:00 p.m., the Eurozone’s Manufacturing and Services PMIs (flash estimates); at 6:30 p.m., the UK’s Manufacturing and Services PMIs (flash estimates);at 8:00 p.m., Turkey’s TCMB policy rate and statement, and Israel’s industrial production; at 9:30 p.m., the release of the minutes from the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council meeting; and at 6:45 a.m. the following day, New Zealand’s third-quarter retail sales figures are scheduled to be released.Investors should remain cautious regarding the movement of cross-yen pairs, which rebounded after the yen’s strength failed to hold.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management with a particular focus on foreign exchange markets, and he also has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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