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Market Participants May Be Wary of Further Euro Declines Despite ECB President Lagarde’s Remarks

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Market Participants May Be Wary of Further Euro Declines Despite ECB President Lagarde’s Remarks

22.11.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. Remarks by BOC Governor McClem of Canada
  2. UK CBI Business Survey

In U.S. currency trading yesterday, the Canadian dollar rebounded against the yen after Canada’s October Consumer Price Index (CPI), released yesterday, showed a year-over-year decline of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month’s 3.8% to 3.1%. The CAD/JPY pair rose from 107.238 to 108.428.The price broke above the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart with a real-body candle. From a technical perspective, the CAD/JPY pair formed a bullish candle with a lower wick just below the 75-period MA on the daily chart, and on the weekly chart, it formed a bearish candle with a lower wick after falling below the 20-period MA; therefore, we should keep an eye on the strength of the Canadian dollar during U.S. trading hours.

European currencies weakened against the U.S. dollar, even though ECB President Lagarde emphasized that “it is still too early to declare victory in the fight against inflation” and stressed the need to monitor developments closely. The euro fell against the U.S. dollar from 1.0965 to 1.0899.It paused just below the 20-period moving average on the 4-hour chart. The EUR/USD pair has continued its rebound since the start of the month, and as a correction may be possible, we will be watching closely for directional cues during European trading hours.

Today’s schedule includes the Turkish Consumer Confidence Index at 16:00, the South African Consumer Price Index at 17:00, remarks by RBA Governor Block at 17:35, and at 20:00, the UK’sCBI Business Survey, at 21:00 the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index, at 22:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and U.S. Durable Goods Orders, at 24:00 the U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, at 24:30 U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories,at 25:00: Remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel; at 25:30: Remarks by Canadian BOC Governor McClem; and at 26:00: U.S. weekly natural gas inventories are scheduled. We should remain cautious about the downside potential for the euro, which has weakened following President Lagarde’s remarks.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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