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Will the EUR/USD pair start moving despite the decline in volatility in U.S. trading hours, or should we wait and see?

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Will the EUR/USD pair start to move even as volatility declines in U.S. trading hours, or should we wait and see?

24.11.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. Germany's Third-Quarter GDP
  2. Retail Sales (Canada)

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, price movements in the U.S. dollar remained modest as U.S. markets were closed for a holiday. The USD/JPY pair rose slightly from 148.891 to 149.692, returning above the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart.From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair has rebounded with a bullish candle featuring a lower wick, with the daily 75-day moving average (MA) acting as a support level, and appears to be entering an upward trend toward the upper end of the daily 20-day MA. Since today’s U.S. trading session is shortened, traders should be wary of sudden price movements caused by reduced volatility.

European currencies saw the euro rise slightly against the U.S. dollar after preliminary figures for Germany’s November manufacturing and services PMIs, released yesterday, showed a recovery in both sectors from the previous month.The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.0881 to 1.0930, trading in a narrow range along the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart. However, on the daily chart, the RSI has reached 70—a sign of overbought conditions—so traders should keep a close eye on price movements during European trading hours.

Today’s economic indicators include German GDP and Turkey’s capacity utilization rate at 16:00, the German IFO Business Climate Index at 18:00, remarks by ECB President Lagarde at 19:00, Mexico’s real GDP at 21:00,Brazil’s FGV Consumer Confidence Index at 22:30, Canada’s Retail Sales at 23:00, Mexico’s Current Account Balance at 23:00, and the U.S. PMI at 23:45.As this is the final day of the weekend and volatility is expected to decline during U.S. trading hours, I’d like to wait and see if the EUR/USD pair will start to move.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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