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Will the Canadian CPI, which rose from the previous month's 4.0%, cause the Canadian dollar to strengthen?

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Will the Canadian CPI, which rose from the previous month's 4.0%, cause the Canadian dollar to strengthen?

17.10.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. Canada: Consumer Price Index
  2. U.S. Industrial Production

In U.S. currency trading the previous day, the Canadian dollar rose against the yen after Canada’s August wholesale sales, released yesterday, improved from 0.2% to 2.3% month-over-month. The CAD/JPY pair rose from 109.214 to 109.982.This rise occurred even as the U.S. dollar, the currency of our neighboring country, faced resistance against the yen. From a technical perspective, the CAD/JPY pair has been rising from the bottom of its 4-hour 20-MA, and on the daily chart, the RSI is rising near 55.7, just shy of overbought territory. We will need to assess carefully whether the Canadian dollar will continue to strengthen against the yen.

European currencies saw the pound rise against the yen yesterday after MPC member Pill stated, “The BOE has done a lot regarding inflation, but we cannot say our job is done simply because the inflation rate has fallen.” The GBP/JPY pair rose from 181.140 to 182.744.The rise brought the pair just below the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. With the UK set to release its CPI data as early as tomorrow, traders should remain cautious of a potential rise in the pound depending on the CPI results.

Today’s schedule includes the UK employment report at 15:00, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index and the Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index at 18:00, the Brazilian inflation index at 20:00, and remarks by Fed’s Williams at 21:00:remarks by the President of the New York Fed, at 9:15 PM: Canadian housing starts, at 9:30 PM: Canadian government bond turnover, Canadian Consumer Price Index, and U.S. retail sales,at 10:00 PM, remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman; at 10:15 PM, U.S. industrial production and U.S. capacity utilization; at 11:00 PM, U.S. business inventories and U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index; and at 2:00 AM, remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel.We should keep an eye on how the Canadian dollar reacts to the data, particularly whether Canada’s CPI rises from the previous month’s 4.0%.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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