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Should We Keep a Close Eye on the Swiss Franc, Which Is Being Bought Amid the Israel Crisis?

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Should We Keep a Close Eye on the Swiss Franc, Which Is Being Bought Amid the Israel Crisis?

16.10.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. Foreign Exchange Reserves in Europe
  2. Harker (U.S.): Remarks by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Last weekend, following the release of the U.S. CPI on the 12th, the U.S. dollar strengthened against European currencies. The GBP/USD pair fell by just over 100 pips from 1.2224 to 1.2122, marking its second consecutive day of declines.From a technical perspective, GBP/USD has once again fallen below the 20-day moving average (MA) on the daily chart, setting the stage for a potential continuation of the downtrend. We will be closely monitoring whether the U.S. dollar strengthens against the pound ahead of the UK CPI release scheduled for the 18th of this week.

European currencies saw the Swiss franc emerge as the strongest currency after Switzerland’s September producer import prices, released on the 13th, stabilized at -0.1% from the previous month’s -0.2%.The USD/CHF pair fell by about 80 pips from 0.9085 to 0.9002, offsetting the previous day’s gains.Due to yesterday’s decline, USD/CHF has retreated back to the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and has also returned to just below the 200-period SMA on the daily chart. However, since the lows on the 4-hour chart are rising, this could be interpreted as a retest of the 200-period SMA; therefore, we will be watching price action closely during European trading hours.

Today, at 15:00, Germany’s Wholesale Price Index; at 15:30, India’s Wholesale Price Index; at 16:00, the Czech Republic’s Producer Price Index; at 17:00, Turkey’s fiscal balance; at 18:00, the Eurozone’strade balance, at 19:00 the Israeli GDP and Eurozone foreign exchange reserves, at 21:30 Canadian wholesale sales and Canadian manufacturing sales, the U.S. New York Fed Manufacturing Index, at 23:30 remarks by U.S. Harker:Remarks by Philadelphia Fed President Harker; at 24:30, U.S. 3-month/6-month Treasury auctions; and at 30:00, South Korea’s import and export price inflation rates are scheduled. We will carefully monitor the movements of the Swiss franc, which is being bought amid the Israel situation.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management with a particular focus on foreign exchange markets, and also has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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