Should we keep a close eye on the Swiss franc, which is being bought amid the Israel crisis?
16.10.2023
- Eurozone Foreign Exchange Reserves
- Harker (U.S.): Remarks by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Last weekend, following the release of the U.S. CPI on the 12th, the U.S. dollar strengthened against European currencies. The GBP/USD pair fell by just over 100 pips from 1.2224 to 1.2122, marking its second consecutive day of decline.From a technical perspective, GBP/USD has fallen back below the 20-day moving average (MA), setting the stage for a potential continuation of the downtrend. We will be closely monitoring whether the US dollar strengthens against the pound ahead of the UK CPI release on the 18th.
European currencies saw the Swiss franc emerge as the strongest currency after Switzerland’s September producer import prices, released on the 13th, stabilized at -0.1% from -0.2% the previous month. The USD/CHF pair fell by approximately 80 pips from 0.9085 to 0.9002, offsetting the previous day’s gains.Due to yesterday’s decline, USD/CHF has fallen back to the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and has also returned to just below the 200-period SMA on the daily chart. However, since the lows are rising on the 4-hour chart, this could be seen as a retest of the 200-period SMA, so we will be watching price movements during European trading hours.
Today, at 3:00 PM: Germany’s Wholesale Price Index; at 3:30 PM: India’s Wholesale Price Index; at 4:00 PM: Czech Republic’s Producer Price Index; at 5:00 PM: Turkey’s Fiscal Balance; at 6:00 PM: Eurozone’s Trade Balance; at 7:00 PM: Israel’s GDP;EU Foreign Exchange Reserves, at 9:30 PM: Canada Wholesale Sales, Canada Manufacturing Sales, and US NY Fed Manufacturing Index, at 11:30 PM: US remarks by Harker, President of the Philadelphia Fed, at 12:30 AM: US 3-month/6-month Treasury bill auction, and at 12:30 AM: South Korea Import/Export Price Inflation Rate.We will closely monitor the movements of the Swiss franc, which is being bought on the back of the Israel situation.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
