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Should we be on alert for significant fluctuations in the pound following the release of the UK Consumer Price Index?

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Should we be on alert for significant fluctuations in the pound following the release of the UK Consumer Price Index?

18.10.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. Housing Starts
  2. UK Consumer Price Index

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar fell against the euro after the release of U.S. September retail sales data showed a 0.6% month-over-month increase in core sales.The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.0533 to 1.0594. It broke above the 4-hour 20-MA with a real body and also broke through the 4-hour 75-MA. Due to yesterday’s rise, the EUR/USD has recovered to just below the daily 20-MA. However, since the downtrend that has been in place since July of this year remains intact, caution is advised regarding the direction of the market.

Ahead of today’s UK CPI release, the pound traded in a narrow range against the yen. The GBP/JPY pair rose from 181.055 to 182.799, breaking out of the range where it had been trading below the 20-day moving average on the daily chart. On the weekly chart, the 20-day moving average is acting as support, and the pair has rebounded with a bullish candle featuring a lower wick. We will be closely watching today’s CPI release to see how it affects expectations for interest rate hikes.

Today, at 3:00 PM: UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) and UK Retail Price Index (RPI); at 5:00 PM: South Africa CPI; at 6:00 PM: Eurozone CPI; at 8:00 PM: South Africa Retail Sales; at 8:00 PM: US MBA Mortgage Applications Index; at 9:00 PM: Brazil Retail Sales;at 9:30 PM, US Housing Starts and US Building Permits; at 9:30 PM, Canadian Wholesale Sales and Canadian Manufacturing Sales; at 9:30 PM, the NY Fed Manufacturing Index; at 12:30 AM, the US 6-Month Treasury Bill Auction; at 1:00 AM, remarks by US Federal Reserve Governor Waller; and at 3:00 AM, the US Beige Book.With the release of the UK Consumer Price Index, I want to carefully assess whether the pound will see significant volatility and determine the direction of the market.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

I have over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, I have focused primarily on foreign exchange trading and have also worked as an investment advisor. Drawing on my extensive experience, I specialize in technical and fundamental analysis.

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