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Should We Be on Alert for Significant Fluctuations in the Pound Following the Release of the UK Consumer Price Index?

Market Report

Should We Be on Alert for Significant Fluctuations in the Pound Following the Release of the UK Consumer Price Index?

18.10.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. Housing Starts
  2. UK Consumer Price Index

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar fell against the euro after the release of U.S. September retail sales data, which showed a 0.6% month-over-month increase in core sales. The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.0533 to 1.0594.The price broke above the 4-hour 20-MA with a real body and also broke through the 4-hour 75-MA. Due to yesterday’s rise, the EUR/USD has recovered to just below the daily 20-MA. However, since the downtrend that has been in place since July of this year remains intact, caution is advised regarding the direction of the market.

Ahead of today’s UK CPI release, the pound traded in a range against the yen. GBP/JPY rose from 181.055 to 182.799, breaking out of the range where it had been trading below the 20-day moving average on the daily chart.On the higher-timeframe weekly chart, the 20-day moving average is acting as support, and the pair has rebounded with a bullish candle featuring a lower wick. Therefore, we will be closely monitoring today’s CPI release to see how it affects expectations for interest rate hikes.

Today, the UK Consumer Price Index and UK Retail Price Index will be released at 3:00 p.m., the South African Consumer Price Index at 5:00 p.m., the Eurozone Consumer Price Index at 6:00 p.m., and South African retail sales at 8:00 p.m.,at 8:00 PM, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index; at 9:00 PM, Brazil’s retail sales; at 9:30 PM, U.S. housing starts and building permits; at 9:30 PM, Canada’s wholesale sales and manufacturing sales;21:30: NY Fed Manufacturing Index; 24:30: U.S. 6-Month Treasury Bill Auction; 25:00: Remarks by Fed Governor Waller; 27:00: U.S. Beige Book.With the release of the UK Consumer Price Index, I want to carefully assess whether the pound will experience significant volatility and determine its direction.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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