Despite Strong UK Industrial Production, Market Caution Over Further Pound Declines
13.10.2023
- Harker (U.S.): Remarks by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar rose following the release of the September Consumer Price Index, which showed a year-over-year increase of 3.7%—unchanged from the previous month—while the year-over-year core index fell to 4.1% from 4.3% the previous month.The USD/JPY pair rose by just under 90 pips, from 148.955 to 149.828, approaching the key 150 yen level. However, price movements remained limited due to concerns over potential currency intervention, and volatility has stayed within acceptable ranges. We will be watching to see if the US dollar continues to rise during US trading hours.
European currencies saw the pound weaken against the yen, despite the fact that the UK’s August industrial production figures, released yesterday, improved to 1.3% year-on-year from 0.4% the previous month. The GBP/JPY pair fell from this month’s high of 183.814 to 182.323.This marked the first decline in three days. However, GBP/JPY remains above the 20-day moving average on the daily chart and has not completely lost its upward momentum, so we will be closely monitoring price movements during European trading hours.
Today’s schedule includes the Swedish Consumer Price Index at 3:00 PM, the Swiss Producer Price Index and Hungarian Industrial Production at 3:30 PM, the French Consumer Price Index at 3:45 PM, the Philippine Consumer Price Index and remarks by Bank of England Governor Bailey at 5:00 PM, and at 6:00 PM, the EurozoneIndustrial Production, the U.S. Import/Export Price Index at 9:30 PM, remarks by ECB President Lagarde and U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Harker at 10:00 PM, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 11:00 PM, and remarks by BOE Deputy Governor Canrif at 1:30 AM.Despite strong UK industrial production, the pound fell, so we should remain cautious about further downside potential.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
