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Ahead of the FOMC Meeting, Will the Dollar-Yen Pair Test the 164-Yen Level?

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Ahead of the FOMC Meeting, Will the Dollar-Yen Pair Test the 164-Yen Level?

29.07.2026 New

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Policy Rate Announcement
  2. Regular Press Conference by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the July U.S. Consumer Confidence Index came in at 90.8, falling short of the market forecast of 92.3 and the previously revised figure of 92.2.Meanwhile, expectations of an interest rate hike at the FOMC meeting provided support for the U.S. dollar, and the USD/JPY pair traded within a narrow range from around 163.64 yen to around 163.96 yen before closing the previous day at around 163.87 yen.The previous day’s trading range was approximately 32 sen, reflecting limited directional momentum ahead of the FOMC meeting. Resistance is likely to be seen around 164.00 yen, while support is expected around 163.60 yen.

Among European currencies, the pound fell to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar in about three weeks. Inflation concerns eased somewhat due to falling crude oil prices, while expectations of a U.S. interest rate hike supported the dollar.Against the backdrop of a weak UK labor market, expectations that the Bank of England would keep its policy rate unchanged also capped the pound’s upside. The GBP/USD pair fell from a high of around $1.3313 to around $1.3272, closing the previous day at around $1.3287.The previous day’s trading range was approximately 41 pips; we will monitor whether the $1.3300 level acts as resistance and the $1.3270 level acts as support.

Today’s economic indicators include Germany’s June Import Price Index at 15:00, the UK’s June Consumer Credit Balance and M4 Money Supply at 17:30, and the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 20:00.The FOMC policy rate announcement is scheduled for 27:00, followed by the regular press conference with Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at 27:30.While the prevailing expectation is that the FOMC will keep the policy rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75%, the market has also priced in a 0.25-point rate hike to some extent. In addition to the policy decision, attention will focus on what views Chair Warsh expresses regarding future rate hikes and inflation risks.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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Ahead of the FOMC Meeting, Will the Dollar-Yen Pair Test the Upper End of the 163-Yen Range?
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