Ahead of the FOMC Meeting, Will the Dollar-Yen Pair Test the Upper End of the 163-Yen Range?

Ahead of the FOMC Meeting, Will the Dollar-Yen Pair Test the Upper End of the 163-Yen Range?

28.07.2026

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, while U.S. durable goods orders for June rose 0.3% month-over-month—falling short of market expectations—orders for non-defense capital goods (excluding aircraft), considered a leading indicator of capital investment, rose 0.9% month-over-month, highlighting the resilience of the U.S. economy.With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting approaching, the possibility of an interest rate hike—which some market participants still see as a possibility—also provided support for the U.S. dollar.In the Tokyo market on the previous trading day, the USD/JPY pair traded within a range of 163.33 to 163.70 yen, and at 17:00, it stood between 163.52 and 163.53 yen. The U.S. dollar has remained firm since then and is currently trading in the upper 163-yen range.Resistance is likely to be seen around 164.00, while support is expected between 163.50 and 163.00; we will be watching to see if the trend of U.S. dollar buying continues ahead of the FOMC meeting.

European currencies rose as Germany’s July IFO Business Climate Index climbed to 86.6, exceeding market expectations of 86.0. Business sentiment among German companies improved for the third consecutive month, somewhat easing excessive concerns about the European economy.However, as the U.S. dollar remained near its highs ahead of the FOMC meeting, the euro/dollar pair faced resistance on the upside. The euro/dollar traded within a range of 1.1389 to 1.1418 during the Tokyo session on the previous trading day and stood at 1.1395 to 1.1397 as of 5:00 p.m.It is currently trading in the upper 1.13 range, with resistance likely around 1.1400 to 1.1450 and support around 1.1350 to 1.1300. With the release of France’s July consumer confidence index scheduled for today, we will be watching to see if it provides support for the European currency.

Today’s key economic indicators include the first day of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the French July Consumer Confidence Index at 3:45 p.m., U.S. June Wholesale Inventories at 9:30 p.m.,the U.S. May Case-Shiller Home Price Index at 10:00 p.m., the U.S. July Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index at 11:00 p.m., and the U.S. July Consumer Confidence Index at 11:00 p.m.During New York trading hours, the reaction of U.S. interest rates to the U.S. consumer confidence index and housing-related indicators is likely to be a key factor. With the FOMC announcement scheduled for the following day, we will closely monitor whether the USD/JPY pair can approach the 164 yen level and whether the EUR/USD pair can maintain the upper 1.13 range.