With the U.S. trade balance report due, the dollar-yen pair may face resistance around 162 yen

With the U.S. trade balance report due, the dollar-yen pair may face resistance around 162 yen

07.07.2026 New

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the June ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 54.0 from 54.5 the previous month, indicating a slight slowdown in the pace of expansion in the service sector. However, as the index remained above 50, the data did little to fuel concerns about an excessive slowdown in the U.S. economy.The dollar-yen pair traded within a range of 161.40 to 162.30 yen in the Tokyo session and was in the upper 162.10 yen range as of 5:00 p.m.The focus now is on whether the pair can hold around 162.00; resistance is likely around 162.50, while support is likely between 161.50 and 161.00. With the U.S. May trade balance scheduled for release today, we will be watching to see if the U.S. dollar continues to trade at elevated levels.

European currencies saw the eurozone’s May retail sales rise 0.2% month-over-month, marking a slight recovery from April’s decline. The eurozone’s May Producer Price Index (PPI) also rose 0.2% month-over-month, confirming a modest increase in prices.On the other hand, the U.S. dollar’s rebound weighed on the euro, causing the EUR/USD pair to trade in a range in the low 1.14s as it sought direction. In the Tokyo session, the pair traded within a range of 1.1422 to 1.1440, settling in the mid-1.1420s as of 5:00 p.m.Resistance is likely to be seen around 1.1450, while support is expected between 1.1420 and 1.1400; whether the pair can hold above the 1.1400 level will likely be the immediate focus. With Germany’s May industrial production and France’s May trade balance scheduled for release today, we will be watching for the euro’s reaction during European trading hours.

Today’s key economic indicators include the preliminary Japan May Leading Economic Index (CI) and Coincident Economic Index (CI) at 14:00, Germany’s May industrial production at 15:00, France’s May trade balance at 15:45,the U.S. May trade balance and Canada’s May trade balance at 21:30, and Canada’s June Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index at 23:00. In particular, German industrial production is likely to be a key factor during European trading hours, while the U.S. trade balance is likely to be a key factor during New York trading hours; we should carefully assess the direction of the U.S. dollar, the yen, the euro, and the Canadian dollar.