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Will the USD/JPY Rate Test the 161-Yen Level Amid U.S. ISM and Eurozone Retail Data?

Market Report

Will the USD/JPY Rate Test the 161-Yen Level Amid U.S. ISM and Eurozone Retail Data?

06.07.2026

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. June ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index
  2. Eurozone May Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI)

On the previous trading day, the U.S. dollar was influenced by the perception that expectations for a U.S. interest rate hike had subsided, following the release of the U.S. June employment report, which showed that nonfarm payroll growth fell short of market expectations.The U.S. dollar faced resistance near its highs, and the dollar index traded near a two-week low, while the yen also remained weak against the dollar, hovering in the mid-161 yen range.The USD/JPY pair traded within a range of 160.48 to 161.52 yen in the Tokyo market and was in the upper 160.70 yen range as of 5:00 p.m.The focus now is on whether the pair can hold around 161.50; resistance is likely around 162.00, while support is likely between 161.00 and 160.50.Today, the revised U.S. June Services PMI and the U.S. June ISM Non-Manufacturing Index are scheduled for release, and we will be watching to see if the U.S. dollar’s rally continues.

European currencies saw the eurozone’s revised June services PMI rise to 49.4 from 47.7 the previous month, indicating that the pace of contraction in the services sector had eased. However, as the reading remained below 50, caution regarding the region’s economic outlook persisted.The euro-dollar pair traded within a range of 1.1421 to 1.1460 in the Tokyo session, settling in the mid-1.1450s as of 5:00 p.m.While the pair is currently showing resilience in the low 1.14 range, resistance is likely to be seen around 1.1460 to 1.1500, and support around 1.1420 to 1.1400.Today, the eurozone’s May retail sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) are scheduled for release, and we will be watching to see how the euro reacts in light of both economic conditions and inflation.

Today's economic indicators include the UK June Construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) at 17:30,the Eurozone’s May Producer Price Index (PPI) and May retail sales at 6:00 p.m., the revised U.S. June Services PMI and Composite PMI at 10:45 p.m., and the U.S. June ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 11:00 p.m.In particular, during European trading hours, Eurozone retail sales and the PPI are likely to be key drivers, while during New York trading hours, the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index will likely be a key factor; we should carefully assess the directional trends of the U.S. dollar, the yen, the euro, and the pound.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

Previous Article

With the U.S. jobs report out, the focus is likely to shift to assessing the dollar-yen rate in the 161-yen range and the market reaction to the European PMI data.

Next Article

With the U.S. trade balance report due, the dollar-yen pair may face resistance around 162 yen
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