With the dollar-yen rate in the 161-yen range following the U.S. jobs report, the market may be waiting to gauge the reaction to the European PMI data

With the dollar-yen rate in the 161-yen range following the U.S. jobs report, the market may be waiting to gauge the reaction to the European PMI data

03.07.2026 New

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the U.S. June nonfarm payrolls figure came in at 57,000, falling short of market expectations, which heightened concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. labor market. Although the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, the data was accompanied by a decline in the labor force participation rate, causing expectations of a U.S. interest rate hike to recede and the U.S. dollar to weaken against major currencies.The USD/JPY pair traded within a range of 162.60 to 161.15 yen in the Tokyo session and was in the low 161.40 yen range as of 5:00 p.m.The focus now is on whether the pair can hold around 161.00; resistance is likely to be seen around 161.50 to 162.00, while support is likely to be found around 160.50 to 160.00.With few major U.S. economic indicators scheduled for today, we will be watching to see if the trend of dollar selling and yen buying following the U.S. jobs report continues.

European currencies were supported by the eurozone’s May unemployment rate, which remained at a low level of 6.2%, confirming the resilience of the labor market.Supported in part by the U.S. dollar’s weakness following the release of U.S. employment data, the euro/dollar pair traded in a range of 1.1376 to 1.1408 in the Tokyo market and was in the upper 1.1400s as of 5:00 p.m.However, the preliminary reading for the eurozone services PMI fell below 50, and caution remains regarding economic sentiment.Resistance is likely to be seen around 1.1430 to 1.1450, while support is likely to be around 1.1400 to 1.1370; the immediate focus will be on whether the pair can hold near the 1.1400 level.Today, revised June services PMI figures for the eurozone and the UK are scheduled for release, along with remarks by ECB President Lagarde and BOE Governor Bailey; we will be watching for the euro and pound’s reaction during European trading hours.

Today’s economic indicators include France’s May industrial production at 15:45, Turkey’s June Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 16:00, the revised June services PMI for France at 16:50, the revised June services PMI for Germany at 16:55,the revised June Eurozone Services PMI at 17:00 along with remarks by European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde, the revised June UK Services PMI at 17:30, and remarks by Bank of England (BOE) Governor Bailey at 24:00.Trading in the U.S. is likely to be light due to a holiday, so we will carefully assess the direction of the U.S. dollar—which has been rebounding since the previous day’s U.S. jobs report—as well as the euro and the pound in light of the European PMIs and remarks by key officials.