Following the U.S. PCE release, the market may be poised to assess whether the dollar-yen pair will settle in the upper 161-yen range and the euro-dollar pair in the 1.13-dollar range.

Following the U.S. PCE release, the market may be poised to assess whether the dollar-yen pair will settle in the upper 161-yen range and the euro-dollar pair in the 1.13-dollar range.

26.06.2026 New

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the May U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Deflator rose 4.1% year-over-year and the core PCE Deflator rose 3.4% year-over-year, confirming that inflation remains elevated.On the other hand, as the data was largely in line with market expectations, the U.S. dollar struggled to extend its gains despite trading at elevated levels. The USD/JPY pair traded within a range of 161.56 to 161.90 yen during the Tokyo session and was in the low 161.80 yen range as of 5:00 p.m.Currently, with the 162.00 psychological level looming, resistance appears to be weighing on the pair, while on the downside, the focus will likely be on whether the 161.50 to 161.00 range holds as a support zone.Today, the U.S. May wholesale inventories and the final reading of the University of Michigan’s June Consumer Sentiment Index are scheduled for release, and we will be watching to see if the U.S. dollar continues to trade at elevated levels.

European currencies remained under pressure as the German GfK Consumer Confidence Index for July came in at -29.2—a slight improvement from the previous month’s revised reading of -29.7—but still fell short of market expectations, leaving investors cautious about consumer spending.Although the euro held up well as the U.S. dollar faced some upward pressure following the PCE release, the EUR/USD pair traded with limited upside potential in the mid-1.13 range. In the Tokyo session, it traded within a range of 1.1346 to 1.1370, settling near 1.1360 as of 17:00.On the upside, levels around 1.1370 to 1.1400 are likely to be watched, while on the downside, levels around 1.1350 to 1.1320 are likely to be in focus; whether the pair can hold near 1.1350 will likely be the immediate focus.Since there are few major European economic indicators today, we will be watching for the pair’s reaction against the dollar in response to U.S. economic data.

Today’s key economic indicators include Japan’s June Consumer Price Index (CPI, excluding fresh food) for Tokyo’s 23 wards at 08:30,Mexico’s May trade balance at 21:00, U.S. May wholesale inventories at 21:30, and the final reading of the University of Michigan’s June Consumer Sentiment Index at 23:00.We will carefully assess the direction of the U.S. dollar, the yen, and the euro while monitoring whether the momentum of dollar buying subsides following the U.S. PCE release and whether the University of Michigan index reveals any changes in consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.