Following the U.S. PCE release, the market may be poised to assess whether the dollar-yen pair will settle in the upper 161-yen range and the euro-dollar pair in the 1.13-dollar range.

Following the U.S. PCE release, the market may be poised to assess whether the dollar-yen pair will settle in the upper 161-yen range and the euro-dollar pair in the 1.13-dollar range.

26.06.2026

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Deflator rose 4.1% year-over-year and the core PCE Deflator rose 3.4% year-over-year, confirming that inflation remains elevated.On the other hand, as the data largely aligned with market expectations, the U.S. dollar struggled to extend its gains despite trading at elevated levels. The USD/JPY pair traded within a range of 161.56 to 161.90 yen during the Tokyo session and was in the low 161.80 yen range as of 5:00 p.m.Currently, with the 162.00 psychological level approaching, resistance is likely to be a key concern, while on the downside, the focus will be on whether the 161.50 to 161.00 range will act as a support zone.Today, the U.S. May wholesale inventories and the final reading of the University of Michigan’s June Consumer Sentiment Index are scheduled for release, and we will be watching to see if the U.S. dollar continues to trade at elevated levels.

European currencies remained under pressure as the German GfK Consumer Confidence Index for July came in at -29.2—a slight improvement from the previous month’s revised reading of -29.7—but still fell short of market expectations, leaving investors cautious about consumer spending.Although the euro held up somewhat as the U.S. dollar faced some resistance to further gains following the PCE release, the EUR/USD pair traded with a heavy upper limit in the mid-1.13 range. In the Tokyo session, it traded within a range of 1.1346 to 1.1370, settling near 1.1360 as of 5:00 p.m.Resistance levels are likely to be seen around 1.1370 to 1.1400, while support levels are likely to be around 1.1350 to 1.1320; the immediate focus will be on whether the pair can hold near 1.1350.With few major European economic indicators scheduled for today, we will be watching for the pair’s reaction against the U.S. dollar following the release of U.S. economic data.

Today’s key economic indicators include Japan’s June Consumer Price Index (CPI, excluding fresh food) for the Tokyo metropolitan area at 08:30,Mexico’s May trade balance at 21:00, U.S. May wholesale inventories at 21:30, and the final reading of the University of Michigan’s June Consumer Sentiment Index at 23:00.We will carefully assess the direction of the U.S. dollar, the yen, and the euro while monitoring whether the momentum behind dollar buying subsides following the U.S. PCE release and whether the University of Michigan Index reveals any changes in consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.