With U.S. PCE Data on the Horizon, All Eyes Are on the Battle for the Upper 161-Yen Range in the Dollar-Yen Pair

With U.S. PCE Data on the Horizon, All Eyes Are on the Battle for the Upper 161-Yen Range in the Dollar-Yen Pair

25.06.2026 New

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the May new home sales figure came in at an annualized rate of 580,000 units, falling short of market expectations, which highlighted weakness in the housing market. Meanwhile, expectations of additional interest rate hikes this year following the FOMC meeting supported the U.S. dollar, and the dollar-yen pair continued to trade near its highs.In the Tokyo market, the pair traded within a range of 161.54 to 161.73 yen, settling in the low 161.70s as of 5:00 p.m.The focus now is on whether the pair can hold around 161.50; on the upside, the 162.00 level is likely to be watched, while on the downside, the 161.00 to 160.50 range is likely to be in focus.Today, the U.S. May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Deflator and the final reading of U.S. GDP for the January–March quarter are scheduled for release, and we will be watching to see if the U.S. dollar continues to trade at elevated levels.

European currencies saw the German IFO Business Climate Index for June rise to 85.6 from the previous month’s revised figure of 85.0, confirming an improvement in business sentiment. Meanwhile, the strengthening U.S. dollar weighed on the market, and the euro-dollar pair traded with limited upside potential in the mid-1.13 range.In the Tokyo market, the pair traded within a range of 1.1352 to 1.1382, settling in the low 1.1350s as of 5:00 p.m.Resistance is likely to be seen around 1.1380 to 1.1400, while support is likely to be around 1.1350 to 1.1320; the immediate focus will be on whether the pair can hold near the 1.1350 level.Today, Germany’s July GfK Consumer Confidence Survey and France’s June Consumer Confidence Index are scheduled for release, and we will be watching the euro’s reaction during European trading hours.

Today’s economic indicators include the German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for July at 15:00, the French Consumer Confidence Index for June at 15:45, the South African Producer Price Index (PPI) for May at 18:30,Mexico’s May unemployment rate at 21:00, the U.S. May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE Deflator/Core PCE Deflator) at 21:30,U.S. Q1 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP, final reading), U.S. May Personal Income, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the previous week, U.S. May Durable Goods Orders, and the Bank of Mexico’s policy rate at 28:00.In particular, during New York trading hours, U.S. PCE, GDP, employment-related indicators, and durable goods orders will all be released simultaneously, so it will be important to carefully assess the direction of the U.S. dollar, the yen, and the euro.