All eyes are on whether the dollar-yen rally will continue ahead of the U.S. ISM report
05.05.2026
- U.S. April ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index
- U.S. March Trade Balance
In the previous day’s U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar was in demand as a safe-haven asset amid ongoing concerns over the situation in the Middle East. With speculation about potential currency intervention by Japanese authorities still lingering, the dollar/yen pair traded within a range of 155.89 to 157.32 before closing around 157.22.The immediate focus is on whether the pair can hold near 157.00. On the upside, the 157.30 to 158.00 range is likely to be watched, while on the downside, the 156.00 to 155.50 range is likely to be in focus. We will be watching today’s U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and trade balance data to gauge whether the dollar’s rally will continue.
The euro traded within a range of 89 to 157.32 before closing around 157.22.The immediate focus is on whether the pair can hold near 157.00. On the upside, the April Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) came in at 52.2, exceeding the key economic threshold of 50. However, concerns over preemptive buying of raw materials, supply chain disruptions, and rising costs weighed on the euro, keeping its gains against the dollar limited.The EUR/USD pair fluctuated within a range of 1.1681 to 1.1758 before closing near 1.1692.The immediate focus is on whether the pair can recover to the 1.1700 level, with resistance likely around 1.1760 and support around 1.1680 to 1.1650. As the dollar-led market sentiment persists, we will be watching to see if the euro can find support at these lower levels.
Today’s key economic indicators include Hong Kong’s preliminary Q1 GDP at 5:30 PM, the U.S. and Canadian March trade balances at 9:30 PM, the U.S. April services PMI (revised) and composite PMI (revised) at 10:45 PM,and at 23:00, the U.S. April ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, U.S. March New Home Sales, and U.S. March Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) job openings. In particular, during New York trading hours, the U.S. trade balance, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, new home sales, and JOLTS data will be released in quick succession, so we will carefully monitor the initial reaction of the U.S. dollar and its subsequent movements.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
